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My thoughts on Backcasting Backcasting is a planning methodology that works backward from a desired outcome/outcomes or future state/states to the present. While implementing this methodology one needs to identify the policies, programs, actions, milestones that are necessary in order to reach the future desired state, goal, or objective. Hlomberg Robert in their paper on Backcasting from non-overlapping sustainability principles – a framework for strategic planning have defined Backcasting as a planning methodology that is particularly helpful when problems at hand are complex and when present trends are part of the problems (Robèrta, 2000). John B Robinson from the University of Waterloo first coined the term Backcasting in 1980 and laid out its fundamentals ten years later in 1990. Whilst the term Backcasting may have been coined in 1990, its use could date back to the origin of man. The landing of man on the moon 20 July 1969 is a good example of Backcasting. President John F Kennedy announced in Congress on 25 May 1961 “I believe this nation should commit itself to achieving the goal, before this decade is out, of landing a man on the moon and returning him safely to Earth (History, n.d.).” This set into motion a plethora of activities to put a man on the moon by the end of the decade. Backcasting vs Forecasting While forecasting aims at predicting the future based on trends of the past, Backcasting works in the opposite direction, from the desired outcome to the present. In forecasting, the past is known and the outcome is predicted from these historical trends (partially unknown). In Backcasting the desired future is known, and the likely things I need to do to achieve this desired outcome are partially known. In terms of the dependent variable and independent variable, forecasting predicts the future value of the unknown dependent variables based on known values of the independent variables whereas Backcasting predicts the unknown values of the independent variables in order to explain the known value of the dependent variables (Backtracking, 2021). Backcasting from a Single Scenario and Multiple Scenarios. Backcasting can be done both from a single future desired scenario or a multiple future desired scenario. The individual or the leadership may need to use various techniques such as brainstorming, NGT, Delphi technique, PESTLE, horizon scanning, cause and effect diagrams, etc to list out the future scenarios and home-in onto the desired scenarios that are desirable and favorable to them. Backcasting on the Individual Level and Corporate Level Backcasting can be used on both the individual and corporate levels. A common question during a job interview is; where do you see yourself in the next 5 years? The next logical step to ask would be; what are your plans to achieve that desired outcome. These questions naturally lead to the Backcasting process. At a Corporate level, Backcasting may be taken as a strategy-building exercise examining various scenarios of the future and planning the alternate steps to achieve these scenarios. The planning may involve common activities that could be applicable to all scenarios so that flexibility is built in the planning process and finally differentiation can be built in the plan when closer to the desired future. Steps in Backcasting. The very fundamental step in Backcasting is setting a goal/goals, a vision of the future. What does out vision of the future look like? The clearer the vision, the greater will be the motivation to achieve this goal. After visualizing this goal, one must backtrack and work out the sequence of the steps to achieve this goal. Working out the milestones along with the timeline is an important step. This is similar to the saying – putting your ducks in a row or if you aim for the Stars, you will not land up with mud in your hand. The next step would be to build as much flexibility in the plan as possible. The rapid change in technology and societal patterns Finally, one must work out the resources required at each step and milestone to achieve the future desired state. Backcasting during the Pandemic. The pandemic has affected people across the globe equally, however, the smart ones are using the technique of Backcasting by upskilling, learning totally new skills, networking, and many other activities. Doing a Lean Six Sigma Green Belt or Black Belt or even the Master Black Belt certification or certifications such as the PMP, CPSM, etc. could be milestones that one could achieve while Backcasting. Backcasting and the DMAIC/DMADV Process The tools used in Lean Six Sigma DMAIC or DMADV Projects could also be used in the Backcasting technique. The Delphi technique could be used to get a consensus opinion on what the future could look like. The tollgates could be used at each milestone to see if one is on track and build flexibility based on the changing future. Tools in the Analyse phase such as listing the potential scenarios akin to causes and identifying the root causes (main scenarios), hypothesis testing, design of experiments, simulation, etc. can be used to analyze the various scenarios. Conclusion Proverbs 22:6 is an example of backtracking. Train up a child in the path/way/manner in which he should go and when he is old/mature he will not depart from it (Bible Hub, n.d.). “In the path/way/manner, he should go” is akin to the desired future state, “Train up” is akin to backtracking and setting milestones in the life of the child, “and when he is old/mature, he will not depart from it” is akin to achieving the future state. The technique of backtracking has been around for centuries; however, the technique has been formalized and coined as backtracking just three decades ago. References Robèrta, J. H.-H. (2000, December). Backcasting from non-overlapping sustainability principles — a framework for strategic planning. The International Journal of Sustainable Development and World Ecology, p. 2. History. (n.d.). Retrieved July 28, 2021, from History: https://www.history.com/topics/space-exploration/moon-landing-1969 Backtracking. (2021, July 28). Retrieved from Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Backcasting (n.d.). Retrieved July 29, 2021, from Bible Hub: https://biblehub.com/proverbs/22-6.htm