darryl collins

Inventory is divided into various categories for effective management. Some of the popular Inventory Management Techniques are ABC Analysis which is based on the Annual Rupee Value of the Store Keeping Unit (SKU), the FSO/FSN (Fast Slow, Occasional/Non-Moving) Analysis, is based on the movement of the SKU, the VED (Vital, Essential, Desirable) Analysis is based on the criticality of the item finally in the Kraljic matrix the inventory is classified into four categories based on its importance/profit and risk/complexity. Since ABC Analysis is based on both cost and consumption, hidden within the ABC Analysis is the FSO/FSN analysis. Inventory Decisions. Based on these categories, Inventory decisions such as Safety Stock Levels, Level of Control, Order size, Reorder point, no of times to order in a year. Average Inventory, Maximum Inventory Level, Minimum Inventory Level, No of Suppliers, etc. are made. ABC Analysis, sometimes called Always Better Control divides the inventory into Category A – High Annual Rupee value, Category B – Medium Annual Rupee value, and Category C – Low Annual Rupee value. The Annual Rupee value or Annual usage value is calculated by multiplying the Cost of the Item by the Consumption. The Annual Rupee value is then put in descending order and the Pareto Principle is then used to divide the inventory into the three categories A, B, C. Category A is between 10-20% of the inventory, Category B is about 20-30% and Category C is about 50-70%. Category Control Accuracy Level of Control Order Size Average Max/Min Inventory No of Suppliers A Tight High Manager Low Low Large B Medium Medium Asst Mgr. Medium Medium Medium C Loose Low Supervisor High High Few Problems with ABC Analysis. ABC analysis only classifies the inventory into categories based on the cost. It does not take into consideration the criticality, risk, profit, strategic importance, or complexity of the item. The Indian Navy overcame this problem by combining it with the VED Analysis. Inventory Control in the Indian Navy. The Indian Navy combines the ABC and VED Analysis into nine categories which takes into consideration the cost, movement and criticality. The nine categories are Vital - A, Vital - B, Vital - C, Essential - A, Essential - B, Essential - C, Desirable - A, Desirable - B, Desirable – C. The Inventory policies for each of these 9 Categories are very clearly defined with Vital – A SKUs being given the maximum attention and Desirable – C items given minimum attention.

PEST Analysis is a framework to assess the external macro-environmental factors. It is used during environmental or horizon scanning and examines the political, economic, socio-cultural, and technological factors. There are other variants wherein legal, environmental, ecological, ethical, demographic, intercultural, military, information, infrastructure, and regulatory. PEST is done to assess the external risks that may impact a company’s profit. It is believed that Harvard Professor Francis J, Aguilar, introduced PEST Analysis in the form of ETPS in the paper “Scanning the Business Environment” in 1967. Environmental or Horizon Scanning is part of the macro global environmental analysis which includes monitoring, forecasting, and assessment of the environment. This includes markets, industries, companies, competitors, clients. Scanning is done to identify trends and give strategic early warnings. Political factors such as the amount and the manner in which a government intervenes in the economy, government policy, political stability in the country and neighbouring regions, foreign trade policy, tax, labor and environment laws, tariffs, and trade restrictions may be included. A change in government may affect the political analysis. Economic factors may include both macro-economic and micro-economic factors. Macro-economic factors such as economic growth rates, exchange rates, interest rates, inflation, disposable income, and micro-economic factors such as the way people spend their incomes, savings may be included. These indicators are usually reported by the Government Departments or the Reserve/Central Banks. Social factors related to shared beliefs and attitudes of the people, demographics, attitudes towards health, career attitudes, cultural trends such as age distribution, population growth rates, religion, percentage of women in the workforce are used in determining the type of manpower available and the consumer's behavior. Technological factors comprise new ways of producing goods and services, distributing goods and services, and of communicating with target markets. This would include creativity, innovation, maturity of research and development, automation, technological infrastructure, technical ability of labor available, etc. PEST Analysis of Rwanda. Rwanda is popularly known as the land of a thousand hills and a million smiles. The country has demonstrated sustained high economic growth, one of the least corrupt country across the globe, an excellent and improving ease of doing business ranking, access to the East African Region and Congo markets. The governance in the country stands among one of the best in the world. This has been aptly demonstrated in the manner of handling the pandemic and vaccination of its population. The country has a robust and independent judiciary. The technological environment in the country has been growing in leaps and bounds with both technical manpower and infrastructure available in the country. The country has a stable and peaceful society with no differences being made based on religion or other such factors. World Bank Reports, Transparency International Reports and various other reports are available in public domain.

Safety Quality Delivery Customer/Cost Boards SQDC boards help visually track at a glance Safety, Quality, Delivery, and Customer/Cost on a daily basis. In addition to these, Inventory, Productivity, Environment, or Morale may also be included on the SQDC board. The Board thus tracks things important to the employee such as safety and morale, to the customer such as quality, cost, to the business such as inventory, productivity and important to the society such as the environment. The Board thus helps in all-round tracking of the product with respect to the internal, external customers, and the environment. The tracking is done by the Supervisor or Manager most likely during the Gemba walk. Each Area has 30/31 Numbers representing each day of the month. A Green color would indicate that the goal has been met, whereas a red color would indicate an area falling short of the target. The boards could also include additional details such as the current progress updated on a near real-time basis. SQDC boards could also be custom-made. SQDC boards help a firm in Continuous Improvement. Some IT Organizations that use the SQDC board also track the Predictive Analysis, Management Issues, and KPIs. Criteria. The criteria under Safety could include accidents, near misses, safety incidents, safety talk, under Quality the criteria could include complaints, number of test fails, rework, non-conformance items, defects, under Delivery the criteria could include number of late deliveries and under Customer criteria could include the number of customer complaints, returns. Benefits of SQDC. Improves Efficiency. Since the board is visual not only to the management but to all the staff, action can be taken well in time before it becomes critical thereby improving efficiency. Improves Productivity. Since the board is used as a tool for continuous improvement, productivity is the natural result. Improves Accountability. Since the board is visual to everyone, accountability and responsibility can be easily fixed and corrected. Resource Levelling. Since the board, gives the details of areas doing well and areas needing support, resources can be allocated to ensure a smooth flow. Training Opportunities. Training opportunities for improvement in the skills or multi-skilling can be identified. Other Opportunities. Besides this, the Board helps in improving focus, teamwork, and building morale. References https://myvisualmanagement.co.uk/visual-management-products/sqdc-boards/ https://theleanwarehouse.wordpress.com/2020/04/08/striving-for-continuous-improvement-with-sqdc-boards/ https://www.toolbox.com/tech/operating-systems/blogs/making-an-sqdc-board-meaningful-091315/

Bowling Charts The Bowling Chart gets its name from its similarity to a Bowling Scoreboard which has ten frames. The Bowling Chart has 12 frames; one for each month of the year. It is a visual management tool used as a monthly tracking sheet to monitor policy deployment goals or Key Process Indicators. It compares the targets set against the actual performance. The Bowling Chart is also known as a Hoshin Bowling chart. These charts were originally used for Hoshin Kanri Policy deployment to track continuous improvement projects that is completed in a time-phased manner. It sometimes acts as a sequential to-do list based on the time of the activities. The Chart has color schemes of the task/activity with green, yellow or red to indicate the progress. The tasks that are indicated as red or yellow would point to some action points. Halden Zimmermann in his blog suggests that we think about KPIs in terms of three levels, measurable KPIs, manageable KPIs, and actionable KPIs. These KPIs are in the form of a hierarchical order with the actionable KPIs forming the base of the pyramid and the measurable KPIs the peak. Measurable KPIs help the organization to measure the overall health of the organization, manageable KPIs help managers understand the specific opportunities within their domain and the Actionable KPIs help supervisors monitor the day-to-day activities. The strengths of a Bowling Chart lie in its simplicity on checking your KPIs with respect to the set target. Its limitations are that it does not indicate the trends, such as is there an improvement and the magnitude of the improvement. Another limitation with the chart is that we cannot draw specific conclusions from them. We need to couple these charts with others tools to get more detailed information of trends, magnitude of change etc. References https://www.velaction.com/bowling-chart/ https://www.systems2win.com/solutions/bowling_chart.htm https://rattlesnaketime.wordpress.com/2015/01/04/halden-zimmermann-kpi-bowling-charts/ https://blog.kainexus.com/customer/continuous-improvement-software/features/improvement-charts-and-data/bowling-charts/big-lebowski

Deductive Reasoning. California State University defines deductive reasoning as “draws specific conclusions from general principles or premises”. Valid reasoning is at the heart of deductive reasoning. Inductive Reasoning. Inductive reasoning as defined by Utah State University, starts from observations or data and makes broad generalizations from specific observations. Inductive reasoning can have some uncertainty, whereas provided that the premises are true, the conclusions reached by deductive reason have no uncertainty in them. Inductive reasoning is used to formulate hypothesis and deductive reasoning is used to apply them to specific application areas. Inductive and Deductive Reasoning in Lean Six Sigma. Inductive Reasoning. The very philosophy of Lean is inductive thinking. Since Inductive reasoning is from observation to generalization, it has found a smooth adaptation in lean thinking. For example, the Gemba walk could be the start of an observational study by managers or supervisors which could lead to change. Similarly, Inductive thinking also contributes in a very big way to the Kaizen approach to continuous improvement. Deductive Reasoning. Deductive reasoning is the drawing of specific principles from general observations. Moving from a push system to a pull and continuous flow would not have been thought possible in the past. Observation of specific principles in nature such as how does an animal, say a lion provide for itself. Does it store food? (Nil Inventory or Just in Time). Does it kill more than that it requires? (Over Production). Does it waste food? The Lion is agile in the physical and mental area knowing the places where the prey is available. Similarly, businesses having knowledge of their suppliers and supply chains would reduce waste. References http://www.csun.edu/science/ref/reasoning/deductive_reasoning/index.html viewed on 16 Aug 2021 https://www.livescience.com/21569-deduction-vs-induction.html viewed on 16 Aug 2021

Kamishibai Board History. The word Kamishibai comes from the word “paper theatre” which is a story telling method that originated in Japan in the 12th century. The Buddhist monks used this method of story telling to put across moral values and principles for the uneducated. The people compared their lives to these stories which worked as a standard and made changes. It worked out as a system of self-audit for the society. Introduction. The Kamishibai Board is a visual control board that makes the lean management principle of Genchi gembutsu i.e., “go and see” or MBWA “Management by Walking Around” effective and part of the daily schedule. It is a very simple and flexible visual tool. The board list the schedule of inspections/audits that are required to be done by the supervisors. During the Genchi gembutsu visit, the supervisor would be required to update the board. The board may be filled up with an X (problem observed), a triangle (problem observed and corrected), a circle (all well as per laid down standards) or an empty box that would indicate that the rounds were not taken. The Board may also have green/red colour cards with the details of the checks to be done. In case there was a problem, the card is reversed with the red colour facing up, drawing attention for action. In order to introduce the element of surprise, the Kamishibai can also be done as random checks. It can be said that the Kamishibai system is a process confirmation methodology that is incorporated into the daily routine of the organization. It instills a culture of continuous inspection, audit, improvements. The Kamishibai system hence formalizes and prioritizes the checks that are made on the gemba. Total Productivity Maintenance. Kamishibai can sometimes be akin to Total Productive Maintenance. The daily use of the board helps to detect degradation in the standards leading to preventive maintenance either by the operator or maintainer. Audit. The Kamishibai board introduces a totally different perspective of conducting audits. It standardizes the periodicity, the manner in doing the audit by standardizing the expectations of the gemba, and hence it removes the variability between supervisors of the audit process. Some organizations call the Kamishibai system as a mini-audit that serves the purpose of checking the validity of the standards and continuously looking for new areas of improvement. Location of Board. The boards need to be located at the workplace to ensure that the supervisor makes a visit to the workplace and to also ensure that the discrepancies observed are visual to the workers so that preventive action is taken without delay. Kamishibai cards. The Cards may include the 5W1H information which is the what, who, where, when, why, and how Kamishibai and Lean. Kamishibai supports the lean culture as it is used in the gemba walks, helps sustain the 5S, and looks for areas of Kaizen. On gemba walks, it directs the goal of the conversation towards the process instead of trivial issues. The Cards could include the elements of 5S to ensure that it is sustained on a day-to-day basis. Since Kamishibai is done on a day-to-day basis, it also helps to ensure that the improvements made are sustained and that workers do not slip back to the old process. A lean organization would make Kamishibai cards for all lean tools including Kamishibai itself. In the book Lean Transformations - when and how to climb the four steps of Lean maturity by Panneman, T, (2017) the questions that could be included in the Kamishibai cards covering other lean methods are Safety, 5S, Standard work, Team board, Kaizen, Knowledge, 5 Coaching and Kamishibai References https://www.lean.org/lexicon/kamishibai-board https://blog.gembaacademy.com/2009/07/06/one_point_lesson_kamishibai/ https://incito.com/all-services/the-kamishibai-process/ https://blog.gembaacademy.com/2006/11/21/what_is_a_kamishibai/ https://www.mudamasters.com/en/lean-toolbox-lean-production/kamishibai Panneman, T, 2017, Lean Transformations - when and how to climb the four steps of Lean maturity, Maarssen (NL)

RAD – Rapid Application Development The Problems with SDLC, Waterfall Model. Software development projects are different from other projects and need to be handled in a different manner. The use of traditional and linear methods for the development of software is not the best available option. With software projects being intangible, the user finds it difficult to visualize the end product and different stakeholders visualize the end product differently. In the traditional and linear development of software, the user is generally brought into the picture at the specification stage and at the inspection/delivery stage of the project. This is detrimental to the success of the software. The end-user needs to be a part of the project while it is under development and he is gradually able to visualize the end product and requests for changes to the original Software Requirement Specifications in a phased manner. Further, with the constant change in technology both in software and hardware, the possibilities of what is achievable keep on increasing. The incorporation of evolving user requirements, advances in technology, and changing business requirements need to be encouraged throughout the software development cycle. The traditional and linear Waterfall model fails miserably in this regard. Hence in software development projects, it becomes increasingly difficult to freeze the project’s cost, requirements, and timelines. There is hence a need to develop software projects on a different methodology from other standard projects. The erstwhile Software Development Life Cycle Waterfall model was most inadequate to keep up with the quickly changing user’s requirements and changes in technology, hence there was an urgent need to come up with more appropriate methods. There was a need to be more agile to the changing requirements and various agile technologies such as waterfall method, iterative development, and incremental development, prototyping is used in software development. The Need for RAD. In an agile software development environment such as Rapid Application Development, the advantages of incorporating the changing user’s requirements and advances in technology into your project can be achieved through prototyping and iterative development of the software. In this environment, the user’s requirements are not frozen at the beginning of the project but the user is allowed to change his requirements on seeing the prototypes. The Rapid Application Development methodology was put forward by James Martin in 1991. It focuses on the rapid development of prototypes through a quick iterative process. In the field of software development, it replaces a rigid and archaic system with a flexible and proactive one. Benefits of RAD. The RAD methodology has numerous benefits. Besides being a versatile development methodology, it is highly flexible and adaptable with both the developers and end-users making quick decisions throughout the process. The process being highly collaborative and iterative reduces the development time with all stakeholders coming to a consensus quickly. The risks that may be encountered in the project are addressed as soon as they come to light. This prevents the team from being suddenly blind-sided at a later date. Steps in RAD. Ankita Singh in her blog on blog.capterra.com has divided RAD into five basic steps namely 1. Finalization of Project Requirements. This step would be similar to the Define Phase of the DMAIC methodology in that the project is very clearly defined highlighting the goals, timelines, scope, etc. 2. Prototype Building. The success of the RAD is in the quick iterative building of prototypes. The Prototypes help the end-user to visualize the project and clarify or modify their requirements. The iterative development of these prototypes with end-user/other stakeholders’ approval at each iterative stage ensures a risk-reduced, quick development lifecycle. 3. User Feedback. Prototypes are converted into working models and end-users feedback is obtained to improve the model. 4. Testing the Model. This would include the integration of various parts of the project into one system and testing it out as a system. 5. Launching of the System. After testing the model and getting stakeholder approval, the system is set for launch. A pilot launch of the system may be done before the launch of the entire system. The FBI Example. An excellent case study of the difference is the two approaches to software development is the FBI case. The FBI had tried to develop a criminal case management system using the traditional Waterfall system in 2005 over a period of 5 years with an investment of $170 million. This first attempt using the Waterfall methodology failed. The FBI finally successfully developed the system using agile methodologies. The links to these case files are given in the references. References https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Software_development_process https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rapid_application_development https://blog.capterra.com/what-is-rapid-application-development/ The FBI Case https://www.academia.edu/12133977/IT_System_Failures_The_FBI_s_Virtual_Case_File https://resources.sei.cmu.edu/library/asset-view.cfm?assetid=495729 Agile Project Success and Failure (The Story of the FBI Sentinel Program)

My thoughts on Backcasting Backcasting is a planning methodology that works backward from a desired outcome/outcomes or future state/states to the present. While implementing this methodology one needs to identify the policies, programs, actions, milestones that are necessary in order to reach the future desired state, goal, or objective. Hlomberg Robert in their paper on Backcasting from non-overlapping sustainability principles – a framework for strategic planning have defined Backcasting as a planning methodology that is particularly helpful when problems at hand are complex and when present trends are part of the problems (Robèrta, 2000). John B Robinson from the University of Waterloo first coined the term Backcasting in 1980 and laid out its fundamentals ten years later in 1990. Whilst the term Backcasting may have been coined in 1990, its use could date back to the origin of man. The landing of man on the moon 20 July 1969 is a good example of Backcasting. President John F Kennedy announced in Congress on 25 May 1961 “I believe this nation should commit itself to achieving the goal, before this decade is out, of landing a man on the moon and returning him safely to Earth (History, n.d.).” This set into motion a plethora of activities to put a man on the moon by the end of the decade. Backcasting vs Forecasting While forecasting aims at predicting the future based on trends of the past, Backcasting works in the opposite direction, from the desired outcome to the present. In forecasting, the past is known and the outcome is predicted from these historical trends (partially unknown). In Backcasting the desired future is known, and the likely things I need to do to achieve this desired outcome are partially known. In terms of the dependent variable and independent variable, forecasting predicts the future value of the unknown dependent variables based on known values of the independent variables whereas Backcasting predicts the unknown values of the independent variables in order to explain the known value of the dependent variables (Backtracking, 2021). Backcasting from a Single Scenario and Multiple Scenarios. Backcasting can be done both from a single future desired scenario or a multiple future desired scenario. The individual or the leadership may need to use various techniques such as brainstorming, NGT, Delphi technique, PESTLE, horizon scanning, cause and effect diagrams, etc to list out the future scenarios and home-in onto the desired scenarios that are desirable and favorable to them. Backcasting on the Individual Level and Corporate Level Backcasting can be used on both the individual and corporate levels. A common question during a job interview is; where do you see yourself in the next 5 years? The next logical step to ask would be; what are your plans to achieve that desired outcome. These questions naturally lead to the Backcasting process. At a Corporate level, Backcasting may be taken as a strategy-building exercise examining various scenarios of the future and planning the alternate steps to achieve these scenarios. The planning may involve common activities that could be applicable to all scenarios so that flexibility is built in the planning process and finally differentiation can be built in the plan when closer to the desired future. Steps in Backcasting. The very fundamental step in Backcasting is setting a goal/goals, a vision of the future. What does out vision of the future look like? The clearer the vision, the greater will be the motivation to achieve this goal. After visualizing this goal, one must backtrack and work out the sequence of the steps to achieve this goal. Working out the milestones along with the timeline is an important step. This is similar to the saying – putting your ducks in a row or if you aim for the Stars, you will not land up with mud in your hand. The next step would be to build as much flexibility in the plan as possible. The rapid change in technology and societal patterns Finally, one must work out the resources required at each step and milestone to achieve the future desired state. Backcasting during the Pandemic. The pandemic has affected people across the globe equally, however, the smart ones are using the technique of Backcasting by upskilling, learning totally new skills, networking, and many other activities. Doing a Lean Six Sigma Green Belt or Black Belt or even the Master Black Belt certification or certifications such as the PMP, CPSM, etc. could be milestones that one could achieve while Backcasting. Backcasting and the DMAIC/DMADV Process The tools used in Lean Six Sigma DMAIC or DMADV Projects could also be used in the Backcasting technique. The Delphi technique could be used to get a consensus opinion on what the future could look like. The tollgates could be used at each milestone to see if one is on track and build flexibility based on the changing future. Tools in the Analyse phase such as listing the potential scenarios akin to causes and identifying the root causes (main scenarios), hypothesis testing, design of experiments, simulation, etc. can be used to analyze the various scenarios. Conclusion Proverbs 22:6 is an example of backtracking. Train up a child in the path/way/manner in which he should go and when he is old/mature he will not depart from it (Bible Hub, n.d.). “In the path/way/manner, he should go” is akin to the desired future state, “Train up” is akin to backtracking and setting milestones in the life of the child, “and when he is old/mature, he will not depart from it” is akin to achieving the future state. The technique of backtracking has been around for centuries; however, the technique has been formalized and coined as backtracking just three decades ago. References Robèrta, J. H.-H. (2000, December). Backcasting from non-overlapping sustainability principles — a framework for strategic planning. The International Journal of Sustainable Development and World Ecology, p. 2. History. (n.d.). Retrieved July 28, 2021, from History: https://www.history.com/topics/space-exploration/moon-landing-1969 Backtracking. (2021, July 28). Retrieved from Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Backcasting (n.d.). Retrieved July 29, 2021, from Bible Hub: https://biblehub.com/proverbs/22-6.htm

Delphi Technique for Creative Problem Solving The Delphi technique is a research design used to obtain a consensus of opinion of experts especially in places where the data is incomplete or missing. It originated in the 1950s and was funded by the USAF and developed by the RAND Corporation. It was originally used by a multi-disciplinary group of experts to forecast the effects of future warfare on the United States. It is generally used in areas where little published information is available. The process is a series of questions interspersed with feedback of the collated information by the moderator. The main features of the technique are: It requires a group of experts in the relevant field. A series of rounds where information is given back to the participants for reconsideration or strengthening of their point of view Anonymous participation is essential. It is focussed on the future. It is a consensus-based research methodology with the goal of developing a consensus among an anonymous group of experts as to the future best solutions. Some of the earlier areas where the Delphi Technique has been successfully used are in areas such as calculating the number of bombs that Russia would need to drop on the United States to destabilize the U. S. infrastructure? To test the validity of this technique as a method for prediction, participants were asked questions such as “What is the surface of the Moon in thousand square miles?” or “What is the area in square miles of Los Angeles County?” (Brown & Helmer, p. 3). Over the years the Delphi Technique has found greater use in medical research, based on the number of articles published. Its unique methodology to focus on the future has also made it popular in many other fields. With the exponential and unprecedented increase in knowledge and technology, the Delphi technique is gaining popularity in the field of management. The success of the Delphi technique lies in the selection of the right experts which may look easy on the surface but difficult when actually trying to reach out to such experts. When to use the design? Linstone and Turoff (2002), two of the earliest researchers with the Delphi technique, offered a number of common reasons why a researcher might select Delphi as the research design of choice. They say that the Delphi technique is generally selected as a design of choice when there is a lack of information or detail making precise analysis impossible, however the collective subjective judgments of experts might provide a close to accurate solution. It is also useful when the required experts are very diverse and have no history of communication. At times money and time make frequent group meeting impractical. Further it is felt that with experts, problems that may arise due to strong personalities and large differences of opinion may be avoided through anonymous communication. Types of problems appropriate for this design? The good thing about the Delphi technique is that almost any future focused problem is appropriate. For example, Jiang, Kleer, and Piller (2017) used the Delphi technique to study future economic and societal implications of 3D printing in 2030. The scale of their study included about 300 participants. Delphi studies has been done on education and cyber security (Davidson, 2014). Complex studies, having crossovers into many other areas of study such as healthcare (where it is easier to qualify and expert) are areas where the Delphi technique has found popularity. Strategic planning is another area that uses the Delphi technique such as the study by Roßmann et al. (2017) on how big data will affect supply chain management in the future. Delphi Technique and NGT. The Delphi Technique and Nominal Group Technique are both primary consensus focus research designs and are widely used in healthcare. (Fink et al., 1984). Both typically use multiple iterations of questioning to assist in reaching consensus (Hsu & Sandford, 2007), with no specific set number of rounds. References - Davidson, P. L., & Hasledalen, K. (2014). Cyber threats to online education: A Delphi study. Paper presented at the 2nd International Conference on Management, Leadership and Governance, Boston, MA. - Fink, A., Kosecoff, J., Chassin, M., & Brook, R. H. (1984). Consensus methods: Characteristics and guidelines for use. American Journal of Public Health, 74(9), 979-983. - Helmer, O. (1967). Analysis of the future: The Delphi method. Retrieved from http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/papers/2008/P3558.pdf - Hsu, C.-C., & Sandford, B. A. (2007). The Delphi technique: Making sense of consensus. Practical Assessment, Research & Evaluation, 12(10), 1-8. - Jiang, R., Kleer, R., & Piller, F. T. (2017). Predicting the future of additive manufacturing: A Delphi study on economic and societal implications of 3D printing for 2030. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 117(April 2017), 84-97. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2017.01.006 - Linstone, H. A., & Turoff, M. (Eds.). (2002). The Delphi method: Techniques and applications. Retrieved from http://is.njit.edu/pubs/delphibook/delphibook.pdf Roßmann, B., Canzaniello, A., Gracht, H. v. d., & Hartmann, E. (2017). The future and social impact of big data analytics in supply chain management: Results from a Delphi study [in press]. Technological Forecasting & Social Change. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2017.10.005

ECRS Method for Process Improvement. ECRS is an acronym for Eliminate, Combine, Rearrange & Simplify. It is one of the lean tools for removal of waste by examining the process by asking questions related to ECRS. ECRS is generally used when there is a need for immediate improvements to make a process lean through quick and practical solutions. One of the good features of ECRS is that it can be combined with other tools and techniques. ECRS is generally used when there is a need for immediate improvements with quick practical ideas to make the process lean. One of the benefits of ECRS is that it can be used with other techniques to obtain improvement ideas. An important point to remember is that ECRS is a lean technique that is to be rapidly executed. It works best when one has control over its implementation, requires no additional resources such as money, material or manpower, a project that can be executed immediately and is done with the team that is actually involved in the process. Before doing the ECRS one must study the process and draw a process map or write down the detailed process steps instead of just a high-level process map. One should include as much information along with each process step such as the time of each activity, the number of errors, hand offs, along with the time taken to hand-over and take-over, rework loops etc. After making the detailed process map, the ECRS questions need to be asked Eliminate – Eliminating a step is the best option and the top priority step as it would give the best results. The questions to be asked are - does this step add value, what would be the consequences of not doing this step, is this step essential, what is the root cause and can we eliminate it, is this step a value added or a non-value step which may be required such as a regulatory step, could this step be automated, could this step be included in some other tasks? Combine – If we are not able to eliminate the step we need to see if the step can be combined with some other step. We need to study which steps could be combined to add value. The ECRS questions to be asked at this stage would include questions such as could this step be combined with some other step, could this step be combined with a step in an alternate task, could the same person or equipment do both the steps, would an approval be required, and could it be combined with some other approvals? Rearrange – The next thing to do is to see if it is possible to rearrange the steps in the best possible sequence in order to eliminate waste such as motion. The ECRS questions to be asked at this stage could include amongst others - is it possible to rearrange the process step or the process flow, could we rearrange the steps in which the training for this step is done, could we rearrange the approval/inspection process? Simplify – The final step in the process is to simplify the entire process. The ECRS questions that may be asked at this stage could include, could we look at this step through the eyes of a layman, would there be anybody else doing this step in a simpler manner, would automation of this system simplify it, does the person doing this task have the right skill set, could the objective of this step or process be met in a simpler manner, does the complexity of this step change or how could we reduce the complexity and simplify the step? Simple Practical Applications of ECRS Whilst one would generally associate the ECRS process in one’s work place or in a production/service setting, ECRS finds excellent application in day-to-day task at home. A good day to day and practical application of ECRS could be in the kitchen, or while doing various tasks at home, or while going out shopping.