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It was a difficult choice between three answers - Rahul Garg, Sai Kotari and Vishwanath Oleti. Sai Kotari's answer edges over the other two because of the comparison between the two techniques. However, the other 2 answers are also a must read.   Also review the answer provided by Mr Venugopal R, Benchmark Six Sigma's in-house expert.

Q 386. While forecasting involves predicting the future based on current trend analysis, backcasting approaches the challenge of discussing the future from the opposite direction. Explain 'backcasting' and how can it be applied for problem solving.   Note for website visitors - Two questions are asked every week on this platform. One on Tuesday and the other on Friday. All questions so far can be seen here - https://www.benchmarksixsigma.com/forum/lean-six-sigma-business-excellence-questions/ Please visit the forum home page at https://www.benchmarksixsigma.com/forum/ to respond to the latest question open till the next Tuesday/ Friday evening 5 PM as per Indian Standard Time. Questions launched on Tuesdays are open till Friday and questions launched on Friday are open till Tuesday.  When you respond to this question, your answer will not be visible till it is reviewed. Only non-plagiarised (plagiarism below 5-10%) responses will be approved. If you have doubts about plagiarism, please check your answer with a plagiarism checker tool like https://smallseotools.com/plagiarism-checker/ before submitting.  The best answer is always shown at the top among responses and the author finds honorable mention in our Business Excellence dictionary at https://www.benchmarksixsigma.com/forum/business-excellence-dictionary-glossary/ along with the related term

Delphi Technique for Creative Problem Solving The Delphi technique is a research design used to obtain a consensus of opinion of experts especially in places where the data is incomplete or missing. It originated in the 1950s and was funded by the USAF and developed by the RAND Corporation. It was originally used by a multi-disciplinary group of experts to forecast the effects of future warfare on the United States. It is generally used in areas where little published information is available. The process is a series of questions interspersed with feedback of the collated information by the moderator. The main features of the technique are: It requires a group of experts in the relevant field. A series of rounds where information is given back to the participants for reconsideration or strengthening of their point of view Anonymous participation is essential. It is focussed on the future. It is a consensus-based research methodology with the goal of developing a consensus among an anonymous group of experts as to the future best solutions.   Some of the earlier areas where the Delphi Technique has been successfully used are in areas such as calculating the number of bombs that Russia would need to drop on the United States to destabilize the U. S. infrastructure? To test the validity of this technique as a method for prediction, participants were asked questions such as “What is the surface of the Moon in thousand square miles?” or “What is the area in square miles of Los Angeles County?” (Brown & Helmer, p. 3). Over the years the Delphi Technique has found greater use in medical research, based on the number of articles published. Its unique methodology to focus on the future has also made it popular in many other fields. With the exponential and unprecedented increase in knowledge and technology, the Delphi technique is gaining popularity in the field of management. The success of the Delphi technique lies in the selection of the right experts which may look easy on the surface but difficult when actually trying to reach out to such experts. When to use the design? Linstone and Turoff (2002), two of the earliest researchers with the Delphi technique, offered a number of common reasons why a researcher might select Delphi as the research design of choice. They say that the Delphi technique is generally selected as a design of choice when there is a lack of information or detail making precise analysis impossible, however the collective subjective judgments of experts might provide a close to accurate solution. It is also useful when the required experts are very diverse and have no history of communication. At times money and time make frequent group meeting impractical. Further it is felt that with experts, problems that may arise due to strong personalities and large differences of opinion may be avoided through anonymous communication. Types of problems appropriate for this design? The good thing about the Delphi technique is that almost any future focused problem is appropriate. For example, Jiang, Kleer, and Piller (2017) used the Delphi technique to study future economic and societal implications of 3D printing in 2030. The scale of their study included about 300 participants. Delphi studies has been done on education and cyber security (Davidson, 2014). Complex studies, having crossovers into many other areas of study such as healthcare (where it is easier to qualify and expert) are areas where the Delphi technique has found popularity. Strategic planning is another area that uses the Delphi technique such as the study by Roßmann et al. (2017) on how big data will affect supply chain management in the future. Delphi Technique and NGT. The Delphi Technique and Nominal Group Technique are both primary consensus focus research designs and are widely used in healthcare. (Fink et al., 1984). Both typically use multiple iterations of questioning to assist in reaching consensus (Hsu & Sandford, 2007), with no specific set number of rounds. References - Davidson, P. L., & Hasledalen, K. (2014). Cyber threats to online education: A Delphi study. Paper presented at the 2nd International Conference on Management, Leadership and Governance, Boston, MA. - Fink, A., Kosecoff, J., Chassin, M., & Brook, R. H. (1984). Consensus methods: Characteristics and guidelines for use. American Journal of Public Health, 74(9), 979-983. - Helmer, O. (1967). Analysis of the future: The Delphi method. Retrieved from http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/papers/2008/P3558.pdf - Hsu, C.-C., & Sandford, B. A. (2007). The Delphi technique: Making sense of consensus. Practical Assessment, Research & Evaluation, 12(10), 1-8. - Jiang, R., Kleer, R., & Piller, F. T. (2017). Predicting the future of additive manufacturing: A Delphi study on economic and societal implications of 3D printing for 2030. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 117(April 2017), 84-97. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2017.01.006 - Linstone, H. A., & Turoff, M. (Eds.). (2002). The Delphi method: Techniques and applications. Retrieved from http://is.njit.edu/pubs/delphibook/delphibook.pdf Roßmann, B., Canzaniello, A., Gracht, H. v. d., & Hartmann, E. (2017). The future and social impact of big data analytics in supply chain management: Results from a Delphi study [in press]. Technological Forecasting & Social Change. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2017.10.005

Delphi technique is a qualitative method ( frequently used in LONG RANGE FORECASTING ) of discussing a probelm wherein say the memberss those are working in a project share there personal opinions / ideas on a particular agenda of discussion . The viewpoints of each of the memebers involved in panel discussion are carefully noticed & the panel comes to a conclusion considering all the points .

If you traverse through the different phases of DMAIC, your are likely to find several tools and methods for Define, Measure and Analyze phases. When we reach the improve phase and look for tools for identifying solutions, one method that comes up in most people's mind is "Brainstorming".   The "Brainstorming" though a very popular and widely applied method, is also known for certain drawbacks. Several improvements have been considered and evolved as methods for creative identification of solutions. The Nominal Group Technique (NGT) and Delphi technique are amongst such methods.   NGT is a method by which we can generate solutions as well as evaluate them, whereas the Delphi technique is mostly considered as a method for evaluating alternate solutions.   The NGT requires the participants to provide their ideas on a slip of paper, often referred to as 'Silent idea generation'. The advantage in NGT is that it promotes participation of all members and overcomes the domination and influencing that usually occur in traditional brainstorming. Once the ideas are collected from all the participants, they are discussed for clarifications among the group. All participants are also involved in scoring the ideas for arriving at the prioritized ones.   The main focus of Delphi technique is to engage subject matter experts (often referred as "Panel of Experts") for the specific topics under consideration to evaluate multiple ideas and to finally decide upon the best solution to a problem. The relevant multiple experts are identified, maybe at different geographical locations, but each one is provided the inputs anonymously. For this reason, it is sometimes referred to as "Secret Ballot". After the inputs are received from each of the expert, the questions relating to the problem solution may be refined and subjected to subsequent rounds before arriving at a final decision.   Delphi technique as compared to NGT: May be used for problems that need specific expert opinions and especially if there is a likely hood for difference of opinions between the experts. The idea of maintaining anonymity between the experts is to avoid possible bias and conflicts. In this way, it differs from NGT, where all the ideas once received are discussed amongst the participants and no anonymity is maintained.  May not be friendly for solutions that are required quickly, since it usually takes time to contact experts and obtain their inputs with multiple rounds, in comparison to NGT, where we could reach a decision faster. Helps in evaluation of ideas and is not an ideal tool to generate the ideas, whereas by using NGT, we can generate ideas as well as evaluate them. Does not need face to face meetings and interactions which are important aspects for NGT. Delphi technique encourages diverse thinking and even conflicting opinions. May be used to estimate likely hood and outcome of future events, with high levels of uncertainty

Delphi technique is a technique that was created by Olaf Helmer and Norman Dalkey of the prestigious think tank Rand Corporation in the 1950’s to forecast the impact of technology on warfare. The name of the technique refers to the oracle of Delphi a priestess in ancient Greece who gave prophecies and advice. The goal of this method is to arrive at expert consensus. The Delphi technique makes use of experts who answer questionnaires anonymously, they then receive feedback of the group response in the form of statistical representative. This process repeats itself in rounds, and the questions in each round are based upon the answers from the previous round. In each round, participants rank their responses by the order of priority. This continues till the range of answers reduces to something that looks like expert consensus. Nominal Group Technique is similar to Delphi Technique in that it also uses rounds, the main difference is the questionnaire in Delphi and the discussions in NGT. But the similarities between the two are cosmetic as NGT is used in less important decisions that require prior decisions while Delphi Technique uses expert opinions for important decisions with higher stakes and can take considerable amount of time to get to expert consensus.   Source: https://www.rand.org/topics/delphi-method.html https://landing.directorpoint.com/blog/delphi-and-ngt-decision-techniques/

Delphi Technique:   The Delphi Technique of problem solving is a structured group communication processes which is based on the principle that decision or forecast from a group are generally more accurate than those from individuals or the unstructured groups.   In Delphi Technique, the group of the experts answers questionnaires in two or more rounds. After each round, the facilitator collects the questionnaires, summarizes the comments including the reasons of the judgements and publish the summarize information. Multiple rounds facilitate/encourage the experts to revise their earlier answers with view of other members of the expert group. This complete process narrow downs the range of answers and which leads to correct answer.     A key feature of the Delphi technique is that the participating experts remain anonymous at all times so that the decisions of experts are not influenced by the status of other expert members of the group.   Nominal Group Techniques are generally used for less consequential decisions. These can be performed quickly and relies on the knowledge of participant. On the other hand the Delphi technique may require weeks of going back and forth between experts and decision-makers. This technique is perfect for addressing high-stakes issues which require a thorough examination of options and expertise.   The Delphi Technique is preferred over nominal group techniques when we do not have any true or knowable answers such as decision-making, policy, or long-range forecasting. It is widely used in Business Forecasting. It is also preferred over nominal group techniques in the field of rapid changes.

In a competitive business environment today, business always seek to the expertise advice and appropriate solution to identify and mitigate the business risk. Delphi Technique is a qualitative research technique or also termed as Risk identification tool, originally conceived by Olaf Helmer and Norman Dalkey. It is a participation technique involving iterative process where we try to seek advice and try to incorporate others point of views with the aim of getting subject matter experts to reach consensus. Thus it’s a survey method where we ask the experts series of questions and these experts (may or may not be the project team members) have to share their opinions anonymously. We can evaluate their opinions with the project team. Thus Delphi Technique is a method that allows experts to respond to questions to reach other until reaching agreement on an issue. However, to drive such discussions with the experts, there are 2 key challenges; 1.      Experts difficult to have physical meeting 2.      Experts might affect by dominant individuals Hence to overcome these challenges, a series of questions delivered to participants via email. This also provides anonymity to participants, thereby encouraging idea generation and reduce dominance by a particular individual. Implementation of Delphi Technique; Although there can be variations on how the method can be applied, there are always certain common distinct characteristics 1.      Choose a facilitator 2.      Identify and select a group of experts             ü  The selected participants must be experts in that field and must have great interest. Besides the technique required to form a                       group of multilateral, they are responsible for giving, collecting, analyzing and summarizing information.  3.      Create a list of questions to a problem you trying to solve         ü  Moderators will need to set questions related to the risks which needs to be identified and these questions are sent to the participants. 4.      Send the questions to the experts anonymously. 5.      Collect feedback, analyze and compile information. Create another set of questions that will bring all the experts to one point of view.             ü  The process of Delphi Technique goes through 2 or more sequential rounds. The moderators will monitor, manage, and analyze                   the feedback along the process.   o   Round 1. Participants answer the open end questions and submit to the moderators in the specific time given. Moderators need to convert the collected information into well structure questionnaire. o   Round 2. Participants receive the questions modified in the first round. In this stage participants required to make a rating of 1 to 10 according to priorities among items. Moderators collect the response, analyze it and make a summary. o   Round 3/4. Participants receive the rating summary along with a summary chart. Participants identity the area of agreement and disagreement. Participants are also asked to revise their judgment and specify the reasons for remaining outside the consensus. The responses are analyzed and summarized and feedback to participants for reactions until participants reach an agreement.   While Delphi Technique is suitable for small group discussions, discourages domination in decision making process, ranking methods are utilized and enables virtual meetings, the below differences would help us understand and decide when to prefer Delphi Technique over Nominal Group Technique;   Delphi Technique Nominal Group Technique The participants of group discussions must have certain level of knowledge towards discussions topic to ensure the quality of idea generated Anyone can be the participants as long as they are involved in the discussions Can be quite slow and time consuming process. Not only slower than face to face meetings but also the time taken to reach consensus takes a longer time as compared to Nominal Group Technique as iterations need to undergo to ensure the best quality of the questionnaire to obtain the best result in identifying risk Time taken to reach consensus is short in order to identify the risk as soon as possible in the discussion after considering everyone’s opinion. There is passive communication as the decision making is on questionnaire results. Anonymity is present to encourage cooperation of the participants in answering questionnaire and to avoid replications among individual panelist Decision making is based on face to face communication. The anonymity does not exist as the identity of the participants is exposed during the discussion.  

There seem to be a good correlation between your standard weight and actual observations. So in the interim you could use the regression equation to arrive at the correct weight. However in the long run, take multiple readings with the same standard weight, compute the mean and standard deviation and if the standard deviation is high, calibrate your weigh scale. Also establish a periodical weigh scale testing / calibration schedule to avoid dispatching excess due to the weigh scale error and losing out revenues.

It is very important to think as a Project Manager what future events may impact our projects. These events may be positive or negative, so understanding them allows us to prepare, and plan accordingly to deal with them. But how can we forecast the future with any degree of certainty? This is where Delphi Technique can be useful. The Delphi Technique helps in estimating the likelihood and outcome of future events. This technique is conducted with a Facilitator asking a group of experts where they exchange their views, and each independently provides with their estimates and assumptions to a facilitator who then reviews the data, prepares and issues a summary report. The group member’s then conducts round of discussion among themselves for reviewing the summary report and again provide their updated forecasts to the facilitator, who will then again review the Submitted responses and prepares the second report and issues the same to the Experts. This process continues until all participants reaches a consensus. The experts at each round are aware of a full record of what forecasts other experts have made, but they are unaware who made which forecast. This technique is an iterative process, and helps in having a range of opinions from the group of experts. The purpose is to clarify and expand the issues, identify the areas of agreement or disagreement and reach consensus among the Experts. History of Delphi Method The Delphi method was first developed at Rand Corporation by Olaf Helmer and Norman Dalkey and was given the name “Oracle of Delphi”. This method helped experts to conduct the questionnaires in series and collect feedback with other rounds. Steps of Delphi Method Step 1: Choose a Facilitator The first step in performing Delphi Technique is to choose the facilitator. This role can be carried out by ourselves, or we decide to find a neutral person within our organization. It is very useful to have someone that is familiar with research and data collection. Step 2: Identify Your Experts This technique relies on a panel of experts. An expert can be any individual from within our organization or industry or can even be our Customer or our Project team with relevant knowledge and experience of a particular topic. Step 3: Define the Problem What is the problem or issue we are seeking to understand? The experts should be aware of what problem they are commenting on, to ensure that they provide a precise and comprehensive solution. Step 4: Round One Questions We should start with asking general questions to the Experts to gain a broad understanding of their views on future events. Questionnaire or survey can be used for asking Questions. Once, the feedback is received, we should collate and summarize the responses, removing any feedback which is irrelevant and look only for common viewpoints. Step 5: Round Two Questions Based on the responses received to the first question, the next questions should further delve deeper into the topic to get clarity on the specific issues. Questionnaire or survey can again be used for asking Questions. Once again the responses received are collated and results are summarized, removing any irrelevant material and looking for the common ground. The only purpose is to get on the Consensus among the Experts. Step 6: Round Three Questions The final questionnaire helps to focus on supporting decision making. What is it the experts are all agreed upon the area of Agreement? Further, we may wish to have more than three rounds of questioning to reach a closer consensus. Step 7: Act on Our Findings After many round of questions, it is believed that experts must have reached a consensus and they will have a view of future events. Then we must analyze the findings and put plans in place to deal with future risks and opportunities to our project. When would Delphi Technique preferred over Nominal Group Technique?   The Delphi technique is preferred over nominal group technique as it helps in isolated generation of ideas, considers all the opinions of each group member, Proactive search behavior for solutions, Problem complexity is Addressed in the process. Large number of people can participate in the Discussion.