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Prabhu G

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Prabhu G last won the day on November 17 2021

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  • Name
    Prabhu Gudelli
  • Company
    Solara Active Pharma Sciences Ltd
  • Designation
    Head - Centre of Excellence

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  1. Company wanted to decide what should be the high competency, qualifying criteria for lateral hires selection. For that they want to decide what should be weight-age for these elements. The competency elements are more than 10 numbers. There are many stakeholders in the company like HR, Direct Line function Managers, Quality, EHS, Finance, L&D etc. Company decided to conduct Multi Voting, which is also called Nominal Group Technique in prioritizing the competencies. Rationale of the company is that - as there are many options, it is important to narrow down the options so that during the selection process, decision making would be easier. They do not want to be biased identifying the weight-ages to competency elements by just few people’s opinion. For better cultural fit of candidates and also help in organization having less employee turnover and have long term career, they decided to take majority stake holders opinion. Each Head has been asked to select top-5 competency elements with rating on scale of 1 ,2,3,4,5. They have organized flip charts, post-it sticks, or ease also decided to make table of options so that one can give their preference based on the scale. After the end of session, their goal is to develop below table with desirable outcome for clear prioritization. Competencies or qualifying criteria HR Production Head Quality Head EHS Head Finance Head L&D Head Engg Head Opex Head Total Education back ground 1 2 3 Total no. years of experience 1 5 6 No.of years of exact experience 1 5 1 4 11 Communication ( in chosen Language) 2 2 4 Functional knowledge 3 4 4 3 14 Result orientation 5 4 4 2 3 18 People orientation 4 3 1 8 Innovation 1 5 5 4 15 Problem solving 3 3 5 11 Receiving feedback 2 2 Collaboration and teamwork 5 2 3 10 Disadvantages Nominal group technique or Multi voting should not be used for options prioritization where there are definite quantitative assessments, guidelines. NGT should also not used when the leaders/ managers involved in process do not have adequate knowledge, experience and also how the results are going to help.
  2. Both Edward Deming and Joseph P Crosby lead quality movement in the early 20th century across the industrial world. Deming more emphasized on top down approach, management commitment, change in management mind set, need for move away from production focus and metric. Deming basically emphasized trade-off to achieve quality. In some cases, the principles are more generic and guiding without much specifics. Crosby is his 14 principles; his major focus is only on quality to improve and sustain organization performance. He first time brought concept of Quality right first time, zero defects and quality is free. Unlike Deming, he was more specific on what organizations should do with involving employees, management to achieve quality objectives. Following are some similarities among Deming principles and Crosby steps. Below is largely a divergent view on quality or means to achieve quality Crosby made very specific focus areas on quality, especially below. Deming has not made such specific reference / principles on quality. However, he has come with high-level statements, guiding principles directed towards management, echoing ownership / accountability. Conclusion : While Deming has brought quality movement across the world in early 20th century, his successors like Crosby carried the baton with more specifics on quality like zero defects , right first time,
  3. In old days , even these days, we go to few days / weeks Mela organized by a third party where sellers exhibit / put their merchandise for not just for advertisement but also sell . Visitors, buyers, customers pay visit , see the new things and buy if required. In this , exhibition organizers charge some amount of fee on Exhibitors. Even organizer has no direct relation to seller commerce but does all the possible efforts so that both seller and visitors have good experience with proper amenities during this event. Exhibition organizer makes revenue not just from sellers, but also thru advertisements. Be it shopping malls, physical brick and mortars stores are nothing but physicals platforms where seller products where buyers come physically most cases. Customer foot falls mostly depend of on reviews, feedback that they get by word of mouth, their own experience besides the merchandise / product itself, in nutshell complete user experience. In more than 99% cases, stores are not producer / manufacturer of merchandise or own the service / may doing service on behalf someone. Sellers visits, based on choices made from many, even after visiting, there is no full probability that customer would buy the product / service or not. Like above conventional economy, Platform economy – has same end objectives but sans physical brick/ mortar, however scale, involvement of digital technologies, user experience has many fold impact on sustenance compared to physical platforms. Today companies like Amazon, Flipkart assumed such large scale that these Platform Economies touches everyone across length and breadth of countries, continents. But many such companies who started at level of scale as Amazon few decades back but with higher technological advances, experience, still failed to make mark and end up close the entities. Couple of decades back, these platform Economies come -up with innovation, high risk but with strong purpose to improve customer experience / service and finally enable more masses to use/ enjoy product services. Scale of volumes was used to reduce cost yet improving economy in absolute terms. Now that thousands of such companies are coming to enter this ever evolving/ highly competitive / highly connected world, need for continual improvement is fait accompli. Lean six sigma methodologies play important role in driving not only for sustenance and but for continuous improvements. Here scope is not selecting the segment, but continuous improvements can undertake by the platform companies in its chosen segment. 1 Attracting seller Base – For physical product / service sellers, Platform company is just another customer with plethora’s companies coming -up. They would be looking for easy order receipt delivery system, quality service from entities operating on behalf of Platform companies and in the end digital monetary transactions. Sellers, Sellers- Inter-phase service providers (example logistic partners) SLA data can be constantly analyzed and BI tools can be developed to track and take not just corrective but improvement actions. Example time series analysis of service, measuring performance of service providers, in case of digital transactions, tickets/ delays in payments wrt to any payment gateways etc. In case of any repeat / chronic performance gap issues, a special project can be taken by adapting agile methodologies, making scrum teams. Example continuous poor service from any channel partner or seller. 2. Improving customer base, improving Loyalty customer base with rewards Like seller base example. all metrics with respect to customer experience must be collated, monitored, analyzed and acted upon for taking continuous improvement actions. Sample data analysis based on stratification or groups representing population data can be done to come to specific insights and actions. There are many metrics with combination of continuous data, discrete data in all above interactions that get generated need to be evaluated with appropriate tools. Normality tests, Gauge R&R tests can be done to validate the data. 3. AI tools and RPA For successful digital platform economies AI tools , robotic process automation play pivotal role in reducing waste, improving process efficiencies with high accuracy without depending on manual interventions. Conclusions: There are multiple avenues to apply Lean Six Sigma methodologies in highly agile , data , analytical driven business on Platform Economy to sustain and improve business thru high customer centricity.
  4. Example - A website published odds of Albert A Gore elevating from Vice president level and elected as President and same are published in the form of Fractional Odds 3/1. If one bets, USD 300 , what is equivalent Decimal odds, Money line Odds a better gets same profit or pay out ? Explanation - In the Fractional odds method (a also called British odds), as probability of candidates goes down or low compared to other candidates, fraction value of odd - goes up. A wager , betting value of USD - 300 on 3/1 odd means, if Albert Gore wins, better would earn profit of 3/1 x 300 = USD 900 in addition to wager of USD 300. In European Odds, underdogs decimal number will be higher than the favorites. If European odd is A, one bets B amount, in case underdog wins , one would get A x B , that means one gets profit P = ( A -1)x B. In the above example B is USD 300, P = USD 900 , therefore A-1 = 900/3 means A - 4.0 In American odd, the terminology is completely different. The odds for favorite person is indicated in Negative sign with certain value, say - B . One need to put amount B to get profit USD 100. Whereas for underdogs with very less chance of winning, odd value is + B , means that one would get profit of B on bet value of 100. In the above example Albert Gore is underdog as per bookies, odd value must be + sign and equivalent odd value to earn same profit would be + 300 Final Comparison table with equivalent Odds. Fractional Odds (British Odds) Decimal Odds ( European Odds) Money line odds (American odds) 3/1 4.0 +300
  5. Background Performance or outcome variables of process, product depend up on many parameters and their variability. These independent X variables would have impact on output Y variables. For example; Fuel efficiency of an automobile depend on – Quality of Fuel (V1), Speed of Vehicle ( V2), Maintenance of Vehicle ( V3) etc Output quality and yield of batch in chemical / pharmaceutical manufacturing impacted by - Temperature, pressure in reaction, quality, purity of input raw materials etc. During design or process development stage – many experiments are conducted in R&D laboratories or pilot labs to understand impact each variable (Factors) on the outputs at different input range (levels). As long as these experiments are less cost intensive, less time consuming with less resource utilization, multiple tests with combination of factors and levels can be done easily. However when cost , time, resources involved in such experiments are significant, then it is extremely important that few experiments are conducted to see results as per experiment protocol. The criticality of such experiments would go up exponentially wrt to cost / time/ resources/ outcomes, when conducted at scale-up level from 1L in laboratory to 1 KL at plant scale. A statistical method that is used in selecting such impact-full experiments is known as “Design Of Experiments”. Design of experiments – play very important role in pharmaceutical manufacturing process especially in active pharma ingredients (API ), oral solid dosage forms ( OSD) . In API synthesis manufacturing process, Temperature, pressure of key reactions and purity of input play important role in outcome of API with respect to yield, purity. For 2 different ranges of ( levels) of these factors , there would be 8 combination of experiments that can be conducted as per below formula. No. of Experiments = (Levels)Factors Conducting such number of experiments at Plant scale is very difficult as cost, time, resources used are very high. In actual manufacturing process, these type of variables (factors) affecting output variables / quality run into 10s. In such scenarios, a random way of conducting experiments are just not acceptable. Even design of experiments has be done with proper back ground work. Following would help in improving Design of Experiments and their outcome. Understanding interactions with in Xn and between Xn and Yn. Conduct as many gram scale laboratory experiments as possible to understand all interactions of factors ·Gain process knowledge as much as possible with these multiple experiments. In some cases especially for safety evaluations “what-if” experiments are done to understand extreme conditions, deviations. Runways Arrive at Critical Process parameters / factors affecting the output ( may 80-20 rule, pareto analysis, Risk Priority number etc) Define nuisance random variables which can be blocked that can mitigate interference in experiment outcomes ( fraction factorials). Take guidance from subject matter experts within or outside industry to gain best in process knowledge Conclusion All above (but not limited to) , one can arrive at fractional factorial design of experiments and same can be conducted with higher probability of success rate with minimal impact on resources. That is the reason one says “Good planning is Half the job done” and same specially true in case of Design of experiments.
  6. Technical Debt is – additional costs or incremental costs incurred in maintaining a software code, as part of its life cycle management so that it continues deliver intended objectives to customer, DUE TO compromise made in the quality against timelines at the design stage. This metaphor of Technical Debt is conceptualized by an American Software Professional Ward Cunningham in year 1992. Like financial debt. Technical debt it compounds and increases exponentially if it is not paid back. There is no exact trade off standard on how much technical debt is acceptable, but the general guideline is to keep as low as possible at the design stage, even if it requires some 5 to 10% of additional time to market. High technical debt forces allocation of more resources in code refactoring during its life cycle and often reduces employee morale and affects new software developments or adding new customers. Time to Market, Technical Dept, Refactoring costs – relationship cab be seen on this below graph. What is the solution Agile methodology as opposed to water-fall method would significantly reduce technical dept by improving code quality at design stage. By understanding customer user story well, adopting INVEST guidelines, software code can be made better by addressing all three components like deliverable / scope, quality, timelines. Technical debt can be explained with “UNDONE “, “DONE “ works at design stage. UNDONE work results due to lack of good understanding of user requirements, not collaborating time to time with product owner etc. Instead of living with Technical debt with Undone work, a DONE work can significantly ease out timelines pressure. By clearly articulating final test requirements, involving cross functional teams, dividing project into distinct sprints can significantly improve software quality code, in turn Technical debt. There are other technical guidelines in improving quality of software code. One such guidelines is Halstead complexity metrics which focuses on quantitative complexity of codes with resept to volume, difficulty, Efforts. From Halstead metrics, one can arrive at Time required for program, acceptable bugs in code. Summary: Technical debt may not be avoidable ( up to 5-10%), but certainly can be minimized to large extent by adopting agile methodology , scrum tools at the software design stage in order to meet to customer deliverable in time and cost with quality.
  7. Change – is powerful word, verb which is relevant any time, perpetual and eternal. Any change has its share of resistance or requiring inordinate efforts to pass through inertia. Water – phase change from liquid to water – would require high energy (latent heat). When Air shuttle moves from space stations and enter earth atmosphere, it is encountered with resistance Hence above changes have to be managed properly with across PDCA cycle. Same is true for Change in projects whether it is driven and managed by People, organization etc. There are many methodologies, competencies involved in managing changing projects. Professionals are trained especially project managers in various project management tools like PMP/ PMBOK guidelines. While these address technical aspects, there are many other softer elements like behavior, culture one need to address during driving, managing change. There are various models like : Bruce Tuckman model – forming, storming, norming, performing – helps in preparing one self with various phases when teams are formed to undertake projects. Patrick Lencioni- 5 Dysfunctions of team and how it affects team dynamics Other such model is Dr. John Kotter’s – 8 step processes for Leading change https://www.kotterinc.com/8-step-process-for-leading-change/ Kotter’s 8 steps are 3 broad steps Create a climate for change Engage and enable organization Implement and sustain change There is subtle advantage lies with Project Managers who are trained as LSS champions/ Green / Black belts who are trained in DMAIC approach. A disciplined approach of DMAIC helps in adhering to Kottler’s change management guiding principles. Create climate for change Under this project manager must establish sense of urgency, collaboration requirements, goal post or vision. Define phase of DMAIC approach takes care of above change element. LSS Project leads have to ensure that change project is well defined by understanding Voice of customer Voice of Business Business Case Impact That is created (quantitative, qualitative) Team formation Engage and enable organization Communication of Vision is as important step in this. While working on Define phase, it is extremely important that LSS project leads ensure all stake holders are engaged. SIPOC process as part of Define measure understanding Customer to Supplier value chain and how project / project outcomes are influenced. Force Field analysis, Stake holder analysis, Resistance analysis – help in ensuring developing right foundation and first step is built in the change process. Defining Project champion, Process Owner and Project Sponsor – helps in senior management commitment in change. Periodic review and governance as defined in Project charter helps in reviewing the project progress against milestones, seek support for resources, any decisions that are required from sponsor / top management. These review forums can be used as platform to highlight quick wins, reward and recognize efforts of teams. All these are part of Kotter’s step 5 - 6 of change management i.e Empower Broad based actions, generate short term wins. In improve phase- Pug matrix, Brain storming techniques are also means to derive solutions by collaborative efforts. Implement, Sustain change – These are important aspects which LSS Project managers have to be taken care as of Improve and control Phase in DMAIC approach. Like in 5 S – Sort, Set in order, Shine, Standardize, Sustain – last 2 steps are key factors in managing life cycle, generating repeatable models, institutionalizing processes for sustained performance. Conclusion: While LSS champions, project leaders are well trained and equipped to drive and manage changes by adhering DMAIC approach, various change requirements have to be dealt with appropriate tools in letter & spirit – And one such approach is John Kotter’s 8 steps of change management.
  8. Tableau which is now a group company of Salesforce Inc. – Started in 2003, Is an American company specializing in data visualization software development and services. Power BI - It is originally developed by team working on SQL Server system and went on to become Power BI in 2013 as part of Microsoft windows / office 365 with foundation and additional features built on excel. With around one decade more richer presence and pioneer in the data visualization services, Tableau scores very high among data visualization professionals and experts. For Amateurs and users looking for better ease and low-to-medium data complexity and visualization application, Power BI is normally initial choice. Tableau and Power BI can be compared in the below table. Metric / Feature Power BI Tableau Company Microsoft Inc Tableau Software Inc Year of Inception 2011, formally named as Power BI in 2013 2003 Pricing position Costs Less Costs more Data complexity, handling high data loads 4 5 Professional, expertise level 3 5 Usefulness for amateurs, students, basic needs 5 3 Integration with Microsoft Excel High Medium Speed 4 5 Drawing action-oriented insights 4 5 Functionality Limited data source connections Can be connected to numerous data sources Visualization Moderate Visualization – visualization is basic but one can get 3rd party tool into Power BI Advance Visualization – Capability to create advance visualization and there are blogs with complete step by step instructions available over internet to learn Dashboarding Open Dashboarding – It doesn’t have any fixed layout to create dashboard Effective Dashboarding – More number for options available to create layouts and easy to enhance. Can find good examples in tableau public website Data Modelling Strong Data Modelling (Power Query) – Can bring in multiple tables and create data models to connect data Lacks Data Modelling – One can’t produce high sophisticated data model in tableau but can create simple joins and unions. Others Strong Data Manipulation (DAX) – Using Data Analysis Expression one can create relatively complex dashboards Strong Story Building – In a story one can bring 4-5 sheets or dashboards based on need ( to create) Conclusion: Depending up on user and user needs either Tableau , Power BI or other competitive software can be used for Data Visualization PS : Registered Trademarks of relevant companies are acknowledged. This article submitted in Forum is purely for academic purpose only. The comparison is based on limited understanding and insights from various resources available in public domain. No intended purpose to promote or favoring any product / service.
  9. What is Code Refactoring ? One need to build great foundation before embarking on building further floors on top of it. Before we want to bring/ add / new articles to our residence, we need to make our house in order (remove, unwanted stuff) --- this is nothing but doing housekeeping before one want to do further. Like above examples, same is true for (software) Code refactoring. Code refactoring is a process of editing and cleaning up the old software codes which have inherent duplication, complexity, cumbersome internal structure without affecting the functionalities and behavior of the software. Code refactoring is integral part of any software / application project development. Code refactoring is also integral to agile code / process development. That is very important part of Test Driven Development (TDD) flow which is nothing but iterative and continual improvement process. TDD approach is also called Red-Green- Refactor cycle. When should a team consider doing it? Refactoring is normally considered before adding new features. It is also done as part of “maintenance and housekeeping” as part of life cycle management of code. This is also done to simplify, help in ease of understanding and maintenance by end user. Code refactoring is not something meant for fixing bugs, solving performance issues. Code refactoring is also not Code optimization where latter aim is speed/ delivery. Are there any methods by which code refactoring can be avoided? By doing anything right first time, one avoids rework, maintenance costs. Same is true for code refactoring. By developing code in subsets with simple, easy to understand, effective structure and by cyclic iteration of testing at each phase, code refactoring can be reduced/ avoided to great extent.
  10. Visual controls - Is one of the quick , simple and effective communication tools for easy comprehension, understanding where by one can infer the information. Visual controls help in passing information from long distance thus goes long way eliminating one of important waste / MUDA in Lean i.e transportation, movement and significantly eliminates Non-value add activities. Visuals controls can be categorized into broad 3 segments · Process controls, charts, graphs · Warnings, Cautions, mistake proofing Poke yokes · Instructions, guidance purposes Process controls, charts, graphs Below is an example of how actual savings are accrued as against plan. Similarly in manufacturing environment, how equipment / process are moving can be tracked from long distance by monitoring actual parameters as against specifications/ standards Lean Daily Management Visual controls, especially performance charts, Ishikawa – fish bone / root cause analysis, play significant role in one of very effective tool in Lean implementation i.e Lean Daily management ( LDM) , Leaders standard Boards. LDM boards make Gemba walk of leaders very effective, in understanding work area performance, discussing with shop floor teams, coming with improvement opportunities. Picture Courtesy - https://www.kaufmanglobal.com/glossary/lean-daily-management-system/ Warnings, Cautions, mistake proofing Poke yokes Traffic lights like Red, Yellow, Green on dynamic machines either at location or in remote rooms, computer warning / shutdown / errors messages – are various visual controls which help in preventing mistakes happen. In daily life, car seat belt signages, car engine health status like Break oil level, engine temperature are very effective visual controls for mistake proofing / poke yokes. Instructions, guidance purposes Visual flow charts, sequential steps of operations normally fall into this category. Large signage's with short texts must be appended for effective communication in this type of communications especially work instructions. Even house hold appliances or electronic user manuals are provided with visual instructions for enabling consumer for quick understanding operation. Example of an electronic device connection below. Conclusions – Visual controls are highly effective communication aids which serve purpose of MORE with LESS and are best example of “ Lean” way.
  11. Kids tooth brush – A famous design company come up with novel design of tooth brush handle with fat - rubber cushion, cartoon - appealing emojis or characters on the handle with flexible head / bristles. This had changed the common tooth brush design for all ages and pioneered the child brush design thinking. Pull -push door (famously called Don - Norman) – PULL door with handle, Push door with NO Handle. This has solved normal cognitive behavior Ketch up bottle – A well-known company come -up with squeeze type package with bottom tomato ketch-up / sauce outlet pouring in limited amounts avoiding wastes, time in handling A Clinician programmer, a digital devise – A multinational medical device company making difference to the OT staff in their endeavor to serve patients, come up with single hand use devise. We can term many of above as · User experience · Customer experience · Patient Centricity · Employee orientation · Passenger delight In all these lines User, Patient, Customer etc have one thing common in them, that is “Human “and examples cited above are few among best product/ services in the world which are result of Human centered design ( HCD) approach in problem solving and arriving at solution. Human Centered Design ( HCD) : HCD goes beyond User Centered Design (UCD) approach by not just focusing on tangible, physiological needs but also emotional or psychological preferences. In nutshell HCD can be said as design in thinking in bringing solutions for People with immense EMPATHY. I5 (I-fi)- Important tenets of HCD Inspiration – What exact problem being faced, See / observe the NEED gap and to be felt by designer putting oneself into user position with full empathy Intuitiveness – Common cognitive behaviors, patterns en-grained in the problem / solution Innovation / Ideation – How quickly can come up with solution for above Iteration – Solutions are tested and improved until solution serves intended purpose Implementation – Finally execution Final comments: HCD – tackles contemporaneous problem and comes with solutions based on current needs, gaps if resolved would impact significantly HI/HX etc. Anything contemporaneous, has certain shelf life, things change and evolve into different requirement later. Question to ask one selves or designer in particular – How long lasting is the solution…. For Aaj bhi or Kal Bhi OR Aaj Bhi , Kal Bhi ( Today ond future also) PS : Any reference to product trade mark, company avoided by keeping essence in the examples cited above. However, any oblique reference to above is recognized, accepted. I5 (I-fi) – Coined for easy recall of HCD concept
  12. Project is an activity with purpose or end results achieved in definite period with start and end time with budgeted resources (money, manpower, material). Project Leader role is to ensure above objectives are met by leading diverse team having direct control, external teams, stake holders with little or no control over them. Managing and motivating the internal team having direct control is extremely important as they can influence the project outcome significantly. In many organizations project team composition is diverse in nature, some are fixed in nature of doing such repeat projects. Some are picked-up from different functions, with in or out side organization. Some are even engaged for temporary period of time. Hence to ensure that team delivers the results, project leader need to play important role in constantly engaging and motivating the team. Motivation is large subject and there are many theories around it. However, for corporate, professional setting McClelland theory of Needs is apt one to relate and practice. There are 3 needs as per McClelland theory as below. Need for achievement – motivated by results Need for Affiliation – motivated by inclusiveness, engagement Need for power – motivated by delegation, control over Project can be broadly divided into 3 buckets. Planning (design) Execution Control (monitoring) Based on background of project team members and their motivational needs, they can be assigned appropriate role in above phases of project. For example, team members having Need of achievement as motivation can be given task of project execution role. Project Controllers who monitor end-to-end project in resource allocation, driving collective performance. These get motivated by Need of power and above job would be suitable to them. Finally there are many team members either in back office, planning , design departments, who get motivated by constant engagement, appreciating them for impact they make to the project. There could be transitions in the motivational needs yet times. One , especially Project Leader in above case, need to recognize this and make course correction in dealing with team.
  13. Definition: Earned value of Project is very high level and simplistic way of assessing a project progress with respect to Cost and timelines for a given scope. In very simple terms , earned value (EV) can be explained as below: Example: A 2000 Sq feet of G+1 floor independent house need to be constructed in 18 months with Budget cost to complete in INR 54 Lakhs with Actual Cost (AC) - time (T) in perfect slope of C= 3 T Say after 6-month, Budgeted cost of Work scheduled (BCWS) would be = 3 x 6 = 18 Lakhs In actual, if planned work of 6 months (nothing but Planned value) completes as per schedule and also actual cost spent is INR 18 Lakhs ( ACWS) , we can say both Cost performance Index ( EV/AC), Schedule performance Index ( EV/PV) is 1. Any departure of these indices from 1 would indicate deviation in cost and time performance against plan. If both these indices are less than <1 , it would indicate project is over-run in cost and also behind schedule. Exceptions : The major drawback of EV measurement is , it does not account Critical Paths in project progress. A non-critical path work with significant high cost / spend or Critical path work with less cost / spend , EV method can give wrong insights for the management. Additionally cases where inflationary corrections, scope changes , contingencies are not built in to budget, management should draw conclusions and take actions with due diligence when EV is used for progress tracking.
  14. ABC Life sciences has been approached by an innovator company to submit a quote for developing process from tech-pack stage to Gm level supplies with free issue of Raw materials, chemicals, reagents. As service cost going to depend on no. of head count and duration, group leader has been asked to give estimates in project timelines. Based on historic experience of such kind projects, the group leader indicates typical 12 weeks timeline. However, in case of many repeat experiments, quality not complying to the requirements, timeline can go up to 36 weeks. With right first experiments probability and everything going perfect, it can be completed in as low as 6 weeks. Q. What project timelines should be committed by the ABC Life sciences as per 3-Point Estimation, PERT respectively? A.3-Point Estimation, also known as Triangular Distribution is simple average of Optimistic, pessimistic and most likely estimate. In above question, Optimistic Estimate = 6 Weeks Pessimistic Estimate = 36 Weeks Most Likely Estimate = 12 Weeks 3-Point Estimate value is = ( Oe + Pe + Me)/3 = ( 6+36+12)/3 = 18 Weeks PERT also known as Beta Distribution, assumes higher weight-age to most likely estimated value. PERT estimate value is = ( Oe + Pe + 4Me)/6 = ( 6+36+4x12)/6 = 15 Weeks Therefore ABC Life sciences can indicate 15 Weeks as timelines if there is substantial experience of such projects. In case of group leader feels there is not much past experience, 18 weeks can be quoted. Conclusion: 3- Point estimate gives 2/3rd of weight-age to Optimistic, Pessimistic estimates put together. Where as in PERT only 1/3rd weight-age is given to Optimistic, Pessimistic combined value. PERT would be better estimate in comparison to 3-point estimate when past data is available.
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