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Sharad Talvalkar

Lean Six Sigma Black Belt
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About Sharad Talvalkar

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  • Name
    Sharad Talvalkar
  • Company
    Ex Larsen & Toubro
  • Designation
    Joint General Manager

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  1. Define the term "Scope Creep" . How can you identify scope creep and how can you prevent it? What are the ways to deal with scope creep caused by different parties involved - team members, users, stakeholders etc? Scope Creep Definition: While preparing Project Charter one of the important points is to decide the scope. Scope may be defined in terms of Start Point & End Point or a Product or a service or a Work Area where we intend to make some improvement. Many a times there is an extension of the scope of a Project for various reason and this is known as Scope Creep. Examples. Suppose a company has two manufacturing plants, Plant A & B. Output from Plant A is input to Plant B. Initially it was decided to doValue Stream Mapping for Plant A right from its Supplier. Later on, it was decided to extend the Value Stream Mapping project right up to Plant B & till the end Customers so as derive better financial benefits. This extension of the Project is known as Scope Creep. How to prevent Scope Creep: Scope creep can be prevented by involving all the stake holders at the beginning of the project and arriving at a consensus about the scope of the project. This means there has to be proper deliberations & Voice of the Customer, Voice of the Business, Voice of Employees, Voce of Process should be taken into consideration while deciding the scope of the Project Simultaneously project benefits should be worked out using clearly by using techniques like Internal Rate of Return, Present Value etc. Ways to Deal with Scope Creep: Effective communication with all the stake holders of the Project from time to time is one of the key aspects to avoid Scope Creep. Essentially any Project, challenges the status quo & entails a change. Therefore, John Kotter’s Principles of Change Management will be very useful in dealing with different parties for resolving the issue related to Scope Creep. Finally, the project manager needs to work with the sponsor to either negotiate a later delivery date for the project or reduce its scope to the original when the date is fixed. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  2. Explain prior probability & posterior Probability along with application of Bayes Theorem in a business scenario. Prior probability : Probability is an intricate subject. Therefore, initially the concepts of Probability are introduced / explained with the help of orderly examples where the outcomes are known to us by applying simple logic/ common sense. E.g. Tossing a fair coin, rolling an unbiased dice, drawing a card from a deck. In all these aforesaid cases we can make our probability statements even prior to conducting any experiment. We know that the probability of getting a Head when a coin is tossed is 0.5 ( 50%) Hence such classical cases are known as Prior Probabilities where the outcome is known even before the experiment is conducted. Classical approach defines the probability of getting either Head or Tail when a coin is tossed as This approach to probability is useful when we deal with Coin tosses, card games , dice game etc. Real life situations in management are not so straight forward & therefore one has to define probability in a different way. Posterior Probability : At the beginning of the World Cup Cricket Match 2019, Indian Fans were very confident (99%) that India will win the world cup. As the matches progressed, some key players like Shikhar Dhawan , Vijay Shankar got injured & they could not participate . Hence after getting this additional information, Indian Fans revised the probability ( let’s say 80% )of winning a world cup. This revised probability after getting additional information is known as Posterior Probability. A similar situation also occurs in a business scenario. A shopkeeper may order various colors of Jacket ( Blue, Black, Grey etc.) based on the past consumption pattern. As time progresses, he may notice that the sale of Jackets is not as per his expectation & so after getting this input the shopkeeper may change his ordering pattern of Jackets. This revised ordering pattern is an example of Posterior Probability. Bayes Theorem: Bayes formula for conditional probability under dependence is as follows Let us now understand the application of Bayes Theorem in a business scenario with the help of following example Suppose there are three machines ( M1,M2 & M3), each of them producing a same component, say X. Production from M1, M2 & M3 is 40%, 49% & 11%. If there is a customer complaint from the market what is the probability that it is from M1, M2 & M3. Using simple logic, we can say that the probability of defective coming from M1,M2 & M3 is 0.4, 0.49 & 0.11 respectively. Now we have additional information that the defectives from M1,M2 & M3 are 0.5%, 3% & 2%. In this scenario when a complaint comes from the market what is the probability that the defective is coming from M1,M2 & M3 . Using Bayes Theorem, we can say that Using Bayes Theorem, we can say that In the above example our initial probability of getting defectives from M1,M2 & M3 was 0.4, 0.49 & 0.11.respectively. This probability is the Prior Probability. Later, after getting additional information that the defectives from M1,M2 & M3 are 0.5%, 3% & 2% we have revised the probability of getting defectives from M1,M2, M3 to 0.1058, 0.7778 & 0.1164. This revised probability is known as Posterior Probability. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Bayes Theorem.docx
  3. Spaghetti Diagram is one of the Lean Tools. Lean manufacturing focusses on continuous elimination of Waste. There are eight types of Waste as per the Toyota Production System. These eight types of Wastes are as mentioned below 1) Unnecessary Transportation 2) Excess Inventory 3) Unnecessary movement 4) Waiting 5) Over processing 6) Overproduction 7) Defects 8) Unused employee creativity. Spaghetti diagram is used for tracing the movement of materials, men & even documents for the sequence of operations / process under study. The diagram shows the physical distance travelled form one workstation to another. Generally, lot of to & fro movement or even zig zag movement is observed in most of the processes. All such to & fro or zig zag movement is a Waste -Unnecessary movement which increases the cycle time or throughput time thereby contributing towards increase in the cost. The diagram looks a Spaghetti & hence known as Spaghetti Diagram. For drawing a spaghetti diagram, one can use a blank sheet of paper. On this sheet one needs to first draw the existing layout of plant & machinery, workstation etc. Next draw the line charting the movement/ flow of materials, men or document based on the scope of study. Note down the distance travelled on this chart. Different colors can be used to trace the movements (of different types of materials / document / men – as the case may be). On a single paper one can draw as many movements as possible. The only limitation is that the diagram should be legible. The reasons for spaghetti movement are as follows. 1) Improper plant / office layout. 2) Sometimes the initial layout is made scientifically based on Work study & ergonomics but later on additional operations are introduced or sometimes new equipment is added, thereby resulting into spaghetti movement. Thus, Spaghetti diagram helps in identifying unnecessary movements (one of the eight types of Waste) thereby providing an opportunity to make the process Leaner/ more efficient.
  4. Before defining Secondary Metrics, first let us understand what is meant by Primary Metrics so that it will become easier to understand what is Secondary Metrics. In a Six Sigma process Primary Metrics is something that we want to improve, known as Y in the six sigma parlance. Now Secondary Metrics is something that we do not want to deteriorate at the expense of improving Primary Metrics. Following eamples illustrates the concept of Primary Metrics & Secondary Metrics Sr.No. Primary Metrics Secondary Metric 1 Reduction of inventory in terms of days of consumption in a manufacturing unit 1a) Loss of production because of shortage of a component due to reduction in safety stock. 1b) Increase in the delivery lead time to the customer 2 Reduction in time taken for inspection at incoming stores Increase in defective lots getting accepted 3 To reduce the mismatch between the system stock and physical stock in a stores 3a) Increase in the time required for binning the items stores. 3b) Requirement of additional manpower There could be multiple secondary metrics as shown in the above tables. However one should restrict secondary metrics based on the relative importance so as to make the six sigma project viable & manageable. The purpose of considering secondary metrics is to give a holistic view to the all stakeholders. Secondary metrics are always there because nothing exists in isolation
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