Q 624. Explain how Project Premortem can help in risk assessment of a project with an example? What are the limitations of this approach?

 

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Project Premortem

It is a Aspect of project management.

It is a methodology of seeing project if it fails.

It is generally done by project team before starting of a project assuming that the project will fail.

It helps team to analyze the risk of failure and how to analyze them and corrective measures before implementation.

It is like FMEA.

 

 

A project premortem is a risk assessment and planning technique that helps to find possible failure modes before the project starts. It assumes that the project has failed and then traces back the reasons for that failure. This method ensures a proactive and comprehensive risk management strategy by helping teams in anticipating and mitigating risks.

 

For example, let's take a product development in an automobile company for new project, below mentioned are the steps:

 

Situation: Team is formed to work on a project to work on the new product.

 

Premortem: Assume that the project has not succeeded, list all the possible reasons why this failed.

 

1) No clear expectation setting:

The design of the product did not meet the function requirements.

 

2) Insufficient Examination:

Multiple defects and issues in the product because of no proper testing processes.

 

3) Scope not defined:

As scope was not defined at an earlier stage it continued to grow, which resulted in delays and in sufficient resources to work with, multiple kept increasing the scope.

 

4) Lack of effective communication:

Communication Gap between members of the team resulted in multiple off tracks and alignment misses in the project.

 

5) Person dependency:

The lead designer had a lot of dependency, his absence even for a brief period of time impacted the development effectiveness and timelines in a big way.

 

Mitigation Strategies: The group can create plans to deal with and proactively minimize each risk that has been identified.

 

Project Premortem's shortcomings:

1)Heavily focused on worst-case scenarios:

The premortem technique may cause team members to become anxious and demotivated due to excessive amount of focus on worst-case situations.

 

2)Limited ability to predict:

Though the premortem is an important tool, not all risks can be anticipated, and certain risks might not become obvious until the project is carried out.

 

3)Difficult to Implement:

Team members inclusion and acceptance to engage in premortem is a challenge as it often gives negative results of the work out it.

 

Project Premortem is the term that refers to detect or control the occurrences of  an unexpected failure that may arrive in the future and may lead to death of a project.

it is more of an envisaging technique to forecast future milestones in a project and act earlier than being late.

 

it can be explained with an example of a company who hires a vendor to build a software code as this company has provided a solution for the company and is a trademark intelligent software.

 

if the supplier does not understand the requirements correctly and do not ask questions, there could be a case where timelines can be extended for the project, scope creep can appear, and also at times, the functionality can fail due to regulatory compliance.

 

The limitations of this can be observed in bigger projects which have too many occurrences of milestone plan; eg Delhi Metro Project. this would mean forecasting and looking ahead far to the delivery angle and bring all risks and issues that can happen and would involve a lot of time, intelligent resources and money in planning.

 

 

For a credible project manager one of the most significant pre-requisite skills is the capability to proactively assess all the possible reasons for the projects' failure and their possible mitigation plans. This is what Project Pre-mortem is all about. 

 

Procedure For Performing a Project Pre-mortem 

1. All the members of the project team, on the basis of their experience and subject knowledge, visualize and document all the possible scenarios where wastage of time or money or resources may occur.
2. The team will next document all the possible contributors to such problems.
3. The team will now document in details all the possible execution modes to either avoid these problems or to contain the damage.

 

Benefits Of Project Pre-mortem

1. It promotes team work .
2. The chances of success of the projects increase manifold.
3. The entire team is well prepared to take corrective course of action in case any of the documented failure scenarios appear.
4. This mode of team work leads to a very productive and motivating manner of knowledge sharing.

 

Disadvantages Of Project Pre-mortem 

1. The team members may tend to concentrate on failure scenarios that they are familiar with, unknowingly giving less to no importance to rather unfamiliar scenarios. This may reduce the project's chances of success.

Solution : People from diverse professional backgrounds must be included in this exercise and a smooth and positive exchange of knowledge and experience must be extensively encouraged amongst all the participants.

2. Excessive premortem can result into overthinking and hence, delays in project timeline. 

Solution : Focusing this brainstorming exercise more on the solutions than the problems can help avoid such a paralysis by analysis. Additionally, the target and timeline of this exercise must be perfectly clear and effectively communicated to the  participants beforehand.

3. The participants of this exercise may not take it seriously enough, exposing the project to risks anyway. 

Solution : The initiator of this exercise must effectively communicate proactively all its benefits and that it is an exceptional learning opportunity for them. 

 

Approaching a Project Premortem in the above explained way can increase the chances of a project's success drastically.

Traditional risk assessment can be reactive, especially if problems are identified only after they arise. Project Premortem is a proactive technique that forces project managers to simulate a failed project and dissect why, uncovering hidden vulnerabilities that might otherwise go unnoticed.

 

Benefits:

• Improved Risk Awareness: Teams better understand threats and their impact by playing out potential failures.
• Better Decisions: Premortem insights inform better project planning and proactive risk mitigation.
• Stronger Collaboration: The shared experience fosters trust and communication, leading to a more united team. The team may also identify which other SME’s or other teams that are needed for a successful project.
• Reduced Risk of Failure: Identifying and addressing risks early helps projects stay on track and achieve goals.

Example: 
When teams consider rolling out new products to new markets, holding a pre-mortem with a diverse team can help identify key threats and risks in the landscape that must be overcome. Tesco's entry into the USA with Fresh & Easy stores might have benefitted from a detailed post-mortem with a diverse team of both UK as well as USA-based retail experts and consumers. These stores were unsuccessful for many reasons ranging from store formats to store placement along highways. [Reference article]

 

Limitations:

• False Positives: Identifying non-existent risks can lead to wasted time and resources.
• Limited Scope: Premortems can only identify risks known to the team at the outset.
• Groupthink: Lack of diversity or a dominant team member can lead to overlooking crucial risks.
• Time Commitment: Conducting a thorough premortem requires time and effort. 
• Psychological Safety: Team members might hesitate to share concerns due to fear of blame or judgment.

Despite its limitations, Project Premortem offers a powerful way to assess risks and improve project outcomes proactively. Encouraging teams to think critically and anticipate challenges empowers them to develop effective mitigation strategies and increase their chances of success.
 

Great answers from all respondents. It was difficult to zero in on the winner, however, Aarti has provided the best answer to the question.

Do read answers from Rahul and Sriya.