Q 380. Explain sensemaking using Cynefin framework providing example for each of its four domains.

 

 

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The Cynefin Framework is Concept based Structural technique which help to support decision making for the different situation. It has been created by Dave Snowden in 1999 during his association with IBM Global services. The root of the work lies in Cynefin which is a British word for Habitat focuses on simple habit during complex times.

 

This technique is also known as Sense making tool. As this helps manager in the organizations to identify to perceive situations and make sense of their own and other people's behavior in order to solve the complex issue.

 

This technique is also known as Leader’s framework for solving decision making. It also helps leaders sense in which they can not only make a solution to problem in right approach but also Avoid the problem which come with thein leadership style which causes mistake in certain areas. This tools also help leaders to consider their response for Unpredictable scenario arising in the organization.

 

This technique is based on the four major domain Simple, Complex, Chaotic and complicated. All this four domain have unique response for different challenges. This four domains has been divided into 2 section , Ordered where Simple and Complicated are comes under “ordered” where cause and effect are known or can be discovered. While two domains are Chaotic, and Complex are “Unordered” where cause and effect are deduced only with hindsight or not at all.

 

 

 

1.     Simple

 

This Domain comes under the section of Ordered, Where the clear cause-and-effect relationships that are easily discernible by everyone so solution or self evident and undisputed. This means if you do X, expect Y , So The solution for this situation is Sense -Categorize-Respond. It focuses on straight forward Management Where Leaders Sense or Access the fact of the situations , categorize them, and then base their response on established practice.

 

One of the most common example in industries is Problem arising when new Person join the organization and his requirement are different as per his personal areas. In this case Manager can focuses on Policy available in the organization. As this can be solve by using Best Practice. Where Directives are straightforward and decision can be either delegate (May be to HR ) or taken.

 

2.     Complicated

 

This Domain comes under the section of Ordered, Where the clear cause-and-effect relationships that require certain Analysis or expertise support. This means if you do X, to get Y Analyze phase is required , So The solution for this situation is Sense -Analyze-Respond. In case of Simple domain you need fact and categorize which shifted to Analyze in case of Complicated. This approach is depends upon the expertise level.

 

One of the most common example in industries is to tackle with Machine Maintenance issue. As we have encounter lot of maintenance practice. But in case of difficult issue we need to RCA as SOP or Best practices does not work . Here If the Problem is big we need to take expertise of the Machine expert who focuses on different Learning and Analysis Like vibration analysis , Reliability analysis.

 

 

 

3.     Complex

This Domain comes under the section of Unordered, Where the clear cause-and-effect deduced in retrospect, and there are no right answers. This is one of the most common domain encounter in the organization as Industry is facing continuous change like Business scenario , Market Demand ,New competitor etc.   In this domain, we can understand why things happen only in past scenerion and we can survey the same. That is why The solution for this situation is Probe-Sense -Respond.

 

One of the most common example is the current scenario of COVID-19 where all industry are facing different challenges in Operation , Logistic . Where you need to run Operation in complex situation , As Material is not available. You need to focus on quick option change in RM , New vendor development. Initially It took long time. But In this situation the approach must be change.

 

Similary Government has develop Covid Vaccine in quick time considering few experiment and ensuring that are safe to fail. Current scenario is very good example of Complex domain.

 

4.     Chaotic

 

This Domain comes under the section of Unordered, Where relationship between cause and effect is unclear because the shifting pattern is very high and high level of turbulence exist. This domain challenges are based on Act- sense-Respond.  This is one of the most common domain encounter in the Strong Leaders life once in the lifetime. It is more on the how leader can act and sense the situation where he can try to stabilize and then respond to the situation.

 

On of the most common example like Natural calamity where the leader focuses on not to discover patterns but to stanch the bleeding. Where Leader focuses on Acting tough on decision and sense to support people to save and then focuses on re-establishment.

 

This is a prime example of Leadership style known as crisis management. leaders who are highly successful in chaotic contexts can develop an overinflated self-image, becoming legends in their own minds.

We have lot of Great Leaders in organization who handle in crisis management. Specially we have seen lot of Industries lost the entire factory due to Explosion. But the leaders Act and Done the best to support the real sense of the organization. Then they Transform the new development.

 

The Cynefin Framework is the best tools for Leaders to understand the current scenario of their management style and help them to adapt the different style as per requirement of the problems. They also prepare their organization to understand the different contexts of the business and how to respond during different conditions.

Cynefin Framework was first conceptualised in 1999 by Dave Snowden where Cynefin means "Habitat" in Welsh . It has also be defined as a "Sense Making" device. The idea of Cynefin framework is that it offers Decision makers a "sense of place" from which they view their perceptions. . It helps leaders to understand that every situation is different & would require a unique way of approach to decision making .

Cynefine outlines Five situational domains that has Cause & effect relationships . These domains offers a "sense of place" which aids in analysing behaviour & decision making

 

The 5 domains are :

1. Simple : It represents the Known & Knowns. This signifies there are prescribed rules or best practices in place and if we do X ( Input) we expect Y ( Output ) ,results are known. The expectation in this domain is "Sense-Categorise-Respond", which means Establish real facts , formulate and categorise them and then respond by following the rule book Ex: If the customer has made expenses in the credit card & faltered making the minimum due - establish the facts , categorise them and respond by applying rule book or best practices. This domain is more like a governing body like Legal structure , Judge which has defined SOPs, rules Proven track records of past empirical data which helps analyse, forecast or guide . Here decision making lies entirely in the realm of reason

 

2.Complicated: It represents the Known & UnKnowns. This domain requires analysis or niche expertise as there are range of options of right answers that might come to light. The expectation here is "Sense-Analyse-Respond" and apply good operating process. Here it is important to apply a rationale before coming to a decision , which would require analytical thinking, rationale & justification . This province id of engineers , doctors , AI , lawyers where every complicated problem can be analysed , brainstormed to have a possible sequence of move

Ex A motorist may know there is something wrong with his bike because the engine is making strange noise , but he has to take the bike to the mechanic to diagnose the problem . The complex problems requires investigation with several options which may be excellent , good practice or as opposed to best practice may seem to be appropriate 

 

3. Complex: It represents the UnKnown & UnKnowns. There is no right decision in this domain & cause & effect can only be deduced from introspection. The expectation here is "Probe-Sense-Respond". This domain is very un predictive and leaders take intuitive risks that are safe in nature and see how it works or approaches, because the results are unknowns and every situation might change wither ways

Ex : Let's take the example of Facebook. The founders could not possibly predict the importance of Community operations and Trust & safety . Facebook breached data protection laws by failing to keep users' personal information secure, allowing Cambridge Analytic-a to harvest the data of up to 87 million people without their consent worldwide

while people used facebook. When the situation occurred with respect to Vote polling in  US elections and it was claimed to facebook directly influencing US elections . The company built on this pattern of Data privacy policy and reinforced Trust & safety to protect privacy and data collection without consent of user also reinstated the community guidelines 

 

4.Chaotic : In this domain - The cause & effect are unclear . The events are extremely confusing and doesn't have wait to have a systematic knowledge based response . In this domain need of the hour and Action or Any action is the only way to respond appropriately . The expectation here is "Act-Sense-Respond". Act to establish a specific Order , Sense to check where the stability is & Respond to turn chaotic to complex. In this situation a Leader should immediately act on first without trying to find the Root cause , bring the stability and then work on transforming situation and preventing re-occurence in future and discern new avenues

Ex : A high level escalation from a high profile customer requires to be be immediately acted upon to curb revenue leakage and PR responsibility.  

 

5. Disorder : This domain also known as Dark domain as there is no clarity about which of the other domains apply . The way out here is to break the problem into smaller parts & align leaders to solve each area assigned to them . Leaders then can take part contextually in appropriate ways to solve the constituent parts assigned to them

 

Therefore Cynefin framework allows people to see things from new avenues , assimilate complex concepts and address real problem & opportunities . Using this approach leaders can learn to define framework with their own examples of past experience & scenarios of possible future. Using this framework people can gauge which situation they are in & they can make better decisions or avoid problems that arise if they continue following their preferred management style .

 

 

 

_{Unlike Other Problem-solving tool, Cynefin uses 5 sections described by cause-and-effect relationships. This problem solving tools helps Business Owners/Project Managers to understand how they look out the issue and also check their own and other person’s habitat in solving the problem.}

 

 

_{Let see each of the 5 categories in detail using an example to improve Customer Satisfaction Employee Helpdesk :}

_{Obvious – This section will have solutions to the issues that are simple and doesn’t require any expertise like Frequently asked questions, Call Tree with predefined solutions.}

_{Complicated – This section will have solutions for the general issues but uses expertise to arrive at course of actions by considering risks involved.  like High Volume queries, more new hires in Helpdesk, Employee Escalation handling, etc}

_{Complex – This section will have solutions generated by doing trials on the resolution, ultimate solutions are arrived by discovering solutions. More time consuming and not possible to find accurate solution and involves risk. after some course of actions, we can move this problem to complicated solutions}

_{Chaotic – As it is named, confused solutions are arrived during urgency. Low Call quality, immediate solutions may not work at it best but on a long run, the issue would have controlled due to several actions plans.}

_{Last is the Disorder – wherein we don’t know our hidden issues and once we come to know, we will assign them to appropriate sections.}

Edited July 9, 20214 yr by Beena Ram
Removed website content

Cynefin Framework:

“Cynefin” is a Welsh word that translates as "place" or "habitat". The Cynefin framework is a conceptual framework used for decision-making.  It is a problem-solving tool that helps to put situations into five "domains" defined by cause-and-effect relationships. This helps to assess the situations or the problems more accurately and respond appropriately. As mentioned earlier, Cynefin offers five decision-making domains - a "sense of place" from which to analyse behaviour or the problem and make decisions accordingly. These five domains are: Obvious; Complicated; Complex; Chaotic; and Disorder.

 

Obvious:

It is also known as simple or clear and represents the “known known”. This is the domain where rules in place sometimes as best practices, the situation is stable, and the relationship between cause and effect is obvious and clear enough. These generally include repetitive patterns or consistent events. In such a situations it was advised by Snowden to "sense–categorize–respond" i.e., establish the facts ("sense"), categorize these and then respond by following the existing rules or applying best practices.

For example, problems encountered at help desks or call canters are often predictable, and there are processes in place and best practices are available to handle most of them.

 

Complicated:

The complicated domain consists of the "known unknowns". The relationship between cause and effect is clear in this domain also, but it may not be visible to everyone, because the problem is complicated. This relationship requires analysis or expertise. This domain has a range of right answers. The framework recommends "sense–analyze–respond" i.e., assess the facts, analyze these often with experts, and apply the appropriate good operating practice. Because of the dependency on experts it is called domain of experts also.

One example of this domain may be building civil structures at different geographical conditions. In this case, team may have built these structures multiple times but these may require the analysis of the conditions by an expert and provide expert advice to overcome the geography based problems.

 

Complex:

This domain represents the "unknown unknowns". Cause and effect can only be perceived in retrospect but not in advance, and there are no correct solutions. This framework recommends "probe–sense–respond" process. In such situations, instead of coming with plan of action, it is better to be patient, look for patterns and wait for a solution to emerge.

Many times when human opinions and decisions are involved in any process like hard insurance cases where a lot of subjectivity involves, we could be working in this area because human opinions and decisions are different and may be complex also in certain conditions.

 

Chaotic:

In the chaotic domain, cause and effect are unclear and events in this domain are too confusing to wait for a knowledge-based response. This domain involves "Act – Sense – Respond" process i.e., act to establish order, sense where stability lies and respond to turn the chaotic into the complex domain. This domain is best for innovations. Covid in early 2020 can be categorized in chaotic domain.

 

Disorder:

The dark disorder domain in the centre represents the situations where there is no clarity about which of the other domains applies. On the other hand it is also difficult to identify when you're in a "disorder" situation. The only recommendation in this situation is to gather more information to move into a known domain and then take the appropriate action.

On 7/6/2021 at 4:40 PM, Vishwadeep Khatri said:

 

     Cynefin literally means 'habitat' or 'place'. It is pronounced as “ku-nev-in” (welsh word). It is used to describe the elements of our personal history or situation that influence our thoughts and decisions in ways that we don’t understand. Those elements are to like place of multiple belongings; cultural, religious, geographic, tribal etc.

     The Cynefin Framework is a sense making model and not a categorization model. Unlike categorization model, data precedes the framework in sense-making models. It is a problem-solving tool that puts situation in 5 domains shown below-

 

     Cynefin model helps assess situation more accurately and respond appropriately. Simple situation is also called as Obvious situation. In the above framework, Complicated and Simple are said to be ordered and Complex and Chaotic part us know as unordered.

 

Examples of each domain:

• Simple/ Obvious-conducting stake holder interviews
• Complicated- Learning and development strategy for organization
• Complex- Implementing stake holder recommendations
• Chaotic- Budget reallocation, organization restructure

 

Response:

• In obvious domain/ situation, one must Sense, Categorize and Respond. Categorize is the appropriate response.
• In complicated domain/ situation, one must Sense, Analyze and Respond. Analyze is the key action.
• In complex domain/ situation, one must Probe, Sense and Respond where, Probing is the key action to take and,
• In chaotic domain/ situation, one must Act, Sense and Respond. Acting becomes the key action in Chaotic situations.

 

Disorder- “Disorder” situation is the most difficult one. It is difficult to determine which of the four domains is dominant. People generally tend to make decisions replying on decision making techniques that are known and comfortable. Goal in this situation is to gather more information and move to any of the 4 domains in order to act appropriately.

In the nutshell, each of these domains has specific decision-making approach that helps to make better understanding of situation and to make sense out of it in order to choose most appropriate action and move forward.

The Cynefin framework is a problem-solving tool which helps us to list down the situations into four "domains" defined by cause-and-effect relationships. This helps us assess our situation more accurately and respond appropriately.

We can use the Cynefin framework in a various different situation to categorize the problem or decision and respond accordingly.

 

Example: It can be used in any product development, marketing and organizational strategy

 

The Four Domains.

1.    Obvious contexts

2.    Complicated contexts

3.    Complex contexts

4.    Chaotic contexts

Lets understand each of the domain in detail.

 

·      Obvious contexts is known as the Domain of Best practise

 

In "obvious" contexts, our options are very clear and cause-and-effect relationships are apparent to everyone involved.

 

For example: Problems encountered at call centres are often predictable, and there are processes in place to handle most of them.

 

One challenge is that leaders may not be receptive to new ideas because of their past experiences and success.

 

For example, some people might automatically assume that existing solutions will work again. To overcome this, stay open to new ideas and be willing to pursue innovative suggestions from the team

 

·      Complicated contexts is known as the Domain of Experts

 

Complicated problems might have many "correct" solutions. Here, there is a clear relationship between cause and effect, but it might not be visible, because the problem is complicated

 

For example, you might see several symptoms of a problem but do not know how to fix it.

 

The decision-making here is to "Sense – Analyze – Respond." In other words, you need to assess the situation, analyze what is known and decide on the best response, using good practice.

 

·      Complex contexts is known as the Domain of Emergence

 

 This might be impossible to identify one "correct" solution, or identify cause-and-effect relationships, in "complex" situations.

 

Complex contexts are most of the times unpredictable, and the best approach here is to "Probe – Sense – Respond." Rather than trying to control the situation or insisting on a plan of action, it's better to be patient, look for patterns, and encourage a solution to emerge.

 

·      Chaotic Contexts is known as the Domain of Rapid Response

 

In "chaotic" situations, no relationship between cause and effect exists, so our primary goal is to establish order and stability.

 

The decision-making here is to "Act – Sense – Respond." We need to act very carefully to address the most pressing issues, sense where there is stability and where there isn't, and then respond to the situation from chaos to complexity.

Cynefin Framework is a concept/framework which helps in decision making in any type of situation/environment.

 

History: Cynefin framework is developed by Dave Snowden in 1999, while he was working for IBM global services. Cynefin is Welsh word and means "Habitat"

 

What is Cynefin Framework?

 

Cynefin Framework has 5 decision making contexts or domains and they are as follows:

 

1. Simple or obvious also in the past called as known

2. Complicated (in the past called as knowable)

3. Complex

4. Chaotic

5. Disorder

 

 

1. Simple or obvious domain :-

- This domain represents known-knowns. This means that the relationship between cause and effect is clearly established in this situation.

- We can also say that the situation is stable.

- This is a situation where the rules/instructions are clearly defined and standard operating procedures (SOPs) are clearly established.

- The advice to the leadership team in this situation is Sense - Categorize - Respond.

- This situation is also termed as the best practice

 

Example: If a customer fails to make a credit card payment before the due date and calls up customer care, then the customer care clearly knows based on the SOPs laid how to respond to a customer in this case and communicate the next steps.

 

2. Complicated or knowable domain :-

- This is a domain of known-unknowns. This means that the relationship between cause and effect is not clearly defined, but has range of answers and hence needs experts or subject matter experts to establish the relationship between them.

- The advice to the leadership team in this situation is Sense - Analyze - Respond

- In this situation, a leader has to assess the facts, analyze the situation using the expert advice available and considering all the scenarios and then respond to the situation.

 

Example: A customer places an order on an ecommerce site, but complains the order is in a pending state and the payment is not done by his end. In this situation the customer service agent has to analyze the situation and depending upon various scenarios like (either the payment gateway failed, or there is the problem with bank etc.) has  to guide the customer on what to expect in this scenario and the next steps to follow.

 

3. Complex domain:-

- This is a domain of unknown-unknows. This means that the relationship between cause and effect can be established only based on old or retrospective facts and there are no spot on right answers, but patterns to that can emerge.

- The advice in this situation to a leader is Probe - Sense - Respond, which means, the leader has to do a lot of experiments or probe what has happened in the past, take that into consideration and then understand the current situation and respond.

 

Example: A company's group medical insurance policy is perfect example for this type of situation. Whenever a company goes for renewing a group medical insurance policy, the insurance company goes and investigates a lot of old parameters like claim to premium ratio, demographics of the insurers and their dependents, what type of claims are made?, What were the ailments etc. and then decides on the premium amount and benefits for the upcoming year.

 

4. Chaotic domain:-

- This is a chaotic domain as cause and effect are completely unclear or disjoint.

- Act-Sense-Respond: Since there is a lot of confusion prevailing, the leaders are advised to immediate act to stem the bleeding/ongoing problem first. then sense where the stability can be established and then respond by turn the chaotic situation into Complex.  

- Direct communication is one tool that can be use in this situation to help resolve the confusion

 

Example: If you are appointed as a leader of non performing team, which has issues on all 4 quadrants of Balanced Scorecard and especially has disgruntled employees, some of them have resigned and others are about to resign.. Then the, first step of a leader is to understand why there is resentment amongst the people and address that by taking immediate steps. Then work towards solving other business problems.

 

5. Disorder:- 

- This a situation, where there is no clarity on which domain the situation is falling into.. 

- The only way to break the ice here is to break down the constituents into different parts and try to fit them into different domains and start from there.

- Once that is established one can start from moving from chaotic to complex, to complicated and finally simple. 

 

Example: 9/11 terror attach on US or 26th Nov Mumbai terror act is a perfect example of this situation

 

The best way to practice this is to improve the domain of any situation is by moving clockwise i.e. from

Chaotic --> Complex --> Complicated --> Simple

 

 

 

Cynefin framework

Cynefin framework is a Leader’s framework for Decision making. It can be thought of as a “sense making device” created by Dave Snowden in 1999 while he was working with IBM Global services.

Cynefin framework is used in a variety of situations to categorize a decision and respond accordingly. Mostly, it is useful in marketing, organizational strategy and for product development. It helps make better decisions in a crisis or emergency.

The framework which is defined by cause-and-effect relationships outlines five situational domains. They are:

·         Obvious.

·         Complicated.

·         Complex.

·         Chaotic.

·         Disorder.

Each of these domains has a decision-making approach that helps in making better sense of the situation, and choose the appropriate way forward.

The Five Domains

Obvious Contexts - considered as The Domain of Best Practice

In "obvious" contexts, options are very clear and the relationships are apparent to everyone involved.

For example, problems which occur at help desks or call centers are often predictable in nature, and there are processes set in place to handle most of them.

Snowden argues that in such situation, it is advised to follow the "Sense – Categorize – Respond" Approach to obvious decisions. In such situation, we should assess the situation, categorize its type, and then base our responses on best practice. There is often one "correct" answer, based on an existing process or procedure set in place.

However, there is always danger that contexts may be oversimplified. This happens when leaders, or an entire organization, experience success and then become relaxed. To avoid such kind of mistake, we should make sure that there are clear communication channels in place, so that team members can report any situations that don't fit with any established category.

Another challenge faced often is that leaders may not listen to new ideas because of past experiences and success. For example, sometime it might happen people automatically start assuming that previous solutions will work again. To overcome this, we should be always open to new ideas and be willing to look for innovative suggestions.

Complicated Contexts – considered as The Domain of Experts

"Complicated" problems often have several "correct" solutions and there is a relationship which is clearly available between cause and effect, but not visible to everyone, because of problem which is complicated in nature. For example, we might be able to see symptoms of a problem but have no idea of how to fix it.

Here the approach is to "Sense – Analyze – Respond." Here, we need to assess the situation needs to be assessed, analyzed with the help of experts, and decision is required to be taken on the best response, using good practice.

Leaders often heavily are dependent on experts in complicated situations, while ignoring or not listening to creative solutions from other people. To overcome this, gather a team of people from a variety of backgrounds to ensure that everyone's views are listen.

 

Complex Contexts – considered as The Domain of Emergence

It might be difficult to identify one "correct" solution out of many solutions available, or spot an exact cause-and-effect relationships, in "complex" situations. According to the study done by Snowden and Boone, many business situations fall into this category.

This kind of Complex contexts are often unpredictable, and the best approach in such kind of situation is to "Probe – Sense – Respond." Instead of trying to control the situation or focusing on a plan of action, it's often best to be patient, look for any patterns if available, and encourage a solution to emerge.

It is often helpful to conduct Experiments in such situations, and accept failure and move on as part of the learning process. Make sure that the relevant processes are always kept in place to guide your team's thinking – even a simple set of rules can help us in getting better solutions.

Communication is the best solution available here. Conduct a Discussion where diverse group of people come up with innovative, creative solutions to complex problems. Brainstorming tools such as Random Input or Provocation can be used  to generate new ideas, and encourage your team to debate the possibilities.

Chaotic Contexts – considered as The Domain of Rapid Response

In "chaotic" situations, there is no relationship which exists between cause and effect, in such situations, the primary goal is to establish order and stability. Crisis and emergency kind of situations often fall in this Category.

The decision-making approach used in such scenarios is to "Act – Sense – Respond." We should act decisively to address the most pressing issues, sense where there is stability and where there isn't any stability, then respond to move the situation from chaos to complexity.

To navigate chaotic situations successfully, conduct a Risk Analysis to identify possible risks, prioritize them with a Risk Impact/ Priority Chart and make sure that we have a comprehensive Crisis plan Available in place. It is not possible to prepare for every situation, but planning in advance for identifiable risks is helpful.

Reliable information is often critical in uncertain and chaotic situations, so we need to make sure that how to communicate in a crisis.

 

Disorder

It can be very difficult to identify when we are in a "disorder" situation. In such situations, it is not clear which of the other four domains is more dominant, and in such situation, we should generally rely on decision-making techniques that are known and comfortable to us. The primary goal in such kind of situation is to gather more information, so that we can move into a known domain and then take the appropriate action.

 

Example

A team has recently launched an innovative new Tablet. However, it is observed that it has developed an issue, and no one is aware on what's causing it. Customers dissatisfied with the products have started returning the product and the company's Brand Image has also taken a hit. Mr. X is managing a number of issues and has to help his team to check the cause of the problem so it can be fixed, he's working with marketing team for the compensation related issues as well as he's answering questions from the media about the Tablet’s issue.

He has started using Cynefin framework for better understanding of the situation, and he has categorized it as "complicated," which means he is required to take a Sense – Analyze – Respond approach.

So, he brings in experts from R&D team, IT team and manufacturing team to help him diagnose the problem. These experts then started listing down the quality concerns and then started focusing on each one individually to find the root cause of the problem.

After several days of analysis, everyone agreed that the problem is caused by the loose IC. Working together, the consultants and A team members came up with a concise plan to address the issue and ensure that no more faulty Tablets are shipped.

The Cynefin framework is a conceptual framework used to aid the decision-making process. This framework was created in 1999 by Dave Snowden while working at IBM Global Services; it has been described as a "sensemaking device". This word means habitat.

 

Cynefin offers five decision domains—obvious / simple / clear, complicated, complex, chaotic, and disorder—that help managers to identify how they perceive situations and make sense of their own and other people's behaviour.

 

Simple / Obvious / Clear

 This domain represents the "known knowns" which means there are certain rules in place, situation is also stable, and the relationship between cause and effect is also clear : if you do X, expect Y. The advice in such a situation is to "sense – categorize – respond”: establish the facts i.e. Sense, Categorize, and then respond by following a rule or applying any best practice. This is the domain of legal structures, SOPs etc. E.g. AHT (Average Handle Time) at a helpdesk is recorded high (Sense), Identify which type of calls are taking more time (Categorise) and create some SOPs / Scripts or templates against those type of calls to get these over faster.

Here, managers must avoid of forcing situations into this domain by over-simplifying, or by becoming complacent. When success breeds complacency ("best practice is, by definition, past practice"), there can be a dangerous clockwise shift into the chaotic domain.

 

Complicated

This domain consists of the "known unknowns". Here the relationship between cause and effect requires some analysis or the expertise; there are a range of right answers. The framework recommends "sense, analyze and then respond": assess the facts first, analyze, and apply the appropriate good operating practice. Here, it is possible to work rationally toward a decision, but doing so may need the refined judgment and expertise. This is the area of engineers, surgeons, intelligence analysts, lawyers, and other experts. Artificial intelligence also copes up well here: Deep Blue plays chess as if it were a complicated problem, looking at every possible sequence of moves.

 

Complex

The complex domain means "unknown unknowns". Cause and effect can only be deduced in retrospect, and usually there are no right answers as such. This process as per Cynefin is "probe–sense–respond". E.g. Stock Market Investments. You may invest in the stock market basis the past performance of the share, market indices (probe), sense the future prospects and finally make the investment. But there are no right answers here as such.

 

Chaotic

In this domain, cause and effect are unclear. Here the events are too confusing & pressing to wait for any knowledge-based response”. Action and any kind of action is the first and only way to respond appropriately and then sense and respond. Here, immediate action is not to discover the patterns but to stop the the bleeding immediately. E.g. Corona virus Wave 2 eruption in India. Government has to take action 1^st i.e. Impose immediate Lockdown / Mask / Sanitization guidelines / travel restrictions etc., Sense the effects of these measures over a period of time and then respond the crisis created by available health infrastructure.

 

Disorder / Confusion

This domain in the center represents situations where there is no clarity about which of the other domains applies in this situations. Here, we must break down the situation into further smaller parts and then assign each to one of the other four domains. Leaders can then make decisions accordingly.

 

Applications :

This framework has wide applications and can be used in:

·        Policy-making

·        Product development

·        Markets

·        Supply chain management

·        Branding

·        Software Development

·        Emergency Management

 

Some critics find this framework too difficult and confusing overall as it needs a more rigorous base / foundation, and also it covers too limited a selection of possible contexts. Also there is another criticism is that terms used in this framework such as known, knowable, sense, and categorize are not very clear and creates ambiguity while applying the same in practical scenarios.

 

There are some brilliant answers with some amazing examples to this question. Answers from Suyash, Sharmistha and Rahul are a must read. However the best answer to this question has been provided by Shrikant Angre.