In a user centric processes we often come across the situation where a false alarm is preferred over a missed alert or a missed alert is preferred over a false alarm. In my view, a missed alert represents a significant hazard, and it is best to err on the side of false alarms.

 

Find the below self-explanatory pictorial representations that can be considered:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

A false alarm, occasionally maybe okay or one may never want it similarly a missed alert may not be acceptable or sometimes it can be lived with. Too many false alarms can lead to unwarranted changes in a perfectly stable process and might lead to defects being produced at a later time, and at the same time missed alert means that the defective product will reach the customer which would have business impacts.

 

In statistical terms, one can say that a false alarm is like a Type I error, and a missed alert is like a Type II error. As in the case of type I and type II errors, it largely depends on the consequences of these alarms which would help one decide which is more critical. Personally I would prefer a false alarm over a missed alert, as a false alarm will give opportunity to the operator / process engineer to study the cause of the alarm and then only he would take action on the process, however a missed alert passes on the fault to the next step, and the chances of the defect reaching the customer is high.

 

 

Thanks

Jisha Nair

In journey of pursuing Business Excellence, its practitioner must make sure that they put enough efforts in preventing occurrence of any type of error; by error-proofing the system. However in practical situations, one has to remember that there will be some % of probability of error; even in a very precise and matured system. But it must be then acceptable limit of Noise/Signal ration; which depends on sensitivity of the system.

1. You have option in case of false alarm, to think and decide whether to react
2. In case of missed alarm, you may not have the option and one has to face the consequences of event for which you missed the alarm

 

I will prefer a false alarm over missed alert.

 

Examples – On 26 September 1983, the computers in the Serpukhov-15 bunker outside Moscow, which housed the command centre of theSoviet early warning satellite system, twice reported that American intercontinental ballistic missiles were heading toward the Soviet Union. Stanislav Petrov, who was duty officer that night, suspected that the system was malfunctioning and managed to convince his superiors of the same thing. He argued that if the Americans were going to attack pre-emptively they would do so with more than just five missiles, and that it was best to wait for ground radar confirmation before launching a counter-attack.

Ref - The Man Who Saved the World