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C V Satish

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  1. Time Series Analysis Time series is an ordered sequence of values that a variable takes over time that could either be having regular or irregular pattern. Time Series Analysis(TSA) enables us to understand how predictions are made based on trend, seasonal and cyclical variations. Types of Time Series 1. Trend: It is the easiest of Time series which helps fit our data to a predetermined model and make future predictions. 2. Seasonal: The seasonal time series helps us to understand the season driven variations that recurs invariably during the same period every calendar year. The classic examples is sales during festive season every year and seasonal farming. 3. Cyclical: Cyclical Time series is a characteristic of a time series that can span shorter or longer than one calendar year. The classic example economic trends and stock market variations are cyclical. This is perhaps the most difficult to handle among all time series due to uncertainty. TSA Applications TSA is used for both industrial and non-industrial applications in the business excellence world.Some of the most common areas of it being extensively used are: · Economic Forecasting · Budget Analysis · Inventory Studies · Stock Market Analysis · Utility Studies · Census Analysis · Yield Projections · Sales Forecasting · Workload projections
  2. Introduction John P Kotter is acclaimed to be an authority of tallest order in the field "Change Management" and the foremost speaker on "Leadership". He has authored 18 books and has been faculty of HBS since 1972.Prof Kotter is a recipient of American Society for Training & Development lifetime achievement award in recognition of his invaluable contributions in the fields of Organizational Transformation and Change management. 8 Steps of Change management professed by Kotter is perhaps has its most profound impact on the organizations globally. 8 Steps of Change Management 1. Increase Urgency: This helps to differentiate between complacency, false urgency and true urgency. 2.Build a Guiding Team: Putting together right coalition of people is critical to the success of the change management initiatives. 3. Get the vision right: A clear message that speaks hearts and minds of the organization. 4. Communicate for Buy in: It is mobilizing an aligned army of people and action at top sends a powerful message to the entire organization. 5. Empower action: It Addresses skills, structures and systems 6. Create short term wins: Celebrate success visibly and reward those who helped accomplish it. This maintains the momentum for change which is critical for long term implementation of strategic initiatives. 7. Don't Let up: An organization which works in aligned, urgent and accelerated manner creates significant competitive advantage. 8. Make Change Stick: New practices must grow deep to remain sustained. Adoption of Change Management steps in D-M-A-I-C Six Sigma methodology demands results and hence differs from other quality and process improvement methodologies. Results are delivered by projects which are tightly linked to the customer demands and enterprise strategy. LSS is a synergy of project management and business process improvement practices. The eight steps of change management can be seen integrated well right from the Define phase up to Control phase of DMAIC from crafting a Project Charter up to handing over to the process owners and beyond. In the closing The world changing today at a pace unfathomable, the organizations irrespective of their size and sector have to respond faster than ever before and remain agile to remain in the business and market.
  3. Business Intelligence(BI) technologies have been used extensively in the recent years for collection, integration, analysis and presentation of business information. Power BI and Tableau are two such widely used technologies which performs data visualization to make sense of business data and insights. Power BI Power BI is more focused more on predictive modelling and reporting and was developed by Microsoft. The tool is capable of analyzing, visualizing and extracting insights that can be shared across various departments in an organization. It was originally developed in 2010 by Ron George and was released to public in 2011. Tableau Tableau on the other hand was developed in 2003 at Mountain View, California and now stands acquired by salesforce. The two biggest advantages of Tableau is its low training cost and ability to handle huge volume of data as compared to power BI. Tableau is suitable for medium and large organizations whereas power BI is suitable for small, medium and large type of organizations. It has data interpreter story telling ability however its biggest drawback is its inability to support AI and ML Use Case: Dash boards in companies and governments mostly fancies using Tableau as it is a more attractive and useful user interface as compared to Power BI.
  4. Code Refactoring is a technique/skill used by the agile software developers to improve the structure of the code without compromising the functionality and external behavior of the code. It is achieved by applying micro refactorings which are standardized actions. The introduction of code refactorings brings about very small changes in the code without adding any new bugs. The agile team normally consider refactoring during: * Code reviewing: Its done just before code goes live * Scheduled Intervals: Club its introduction along with with routine scheduled actions Benefits * Easier to read both for the originator and other developers who may work on it. * High maintainability of source code * Expressive Internal Architecture Avoiding Refactoring Avoiding the code refactoring completely is an ideal situation. The only way to do that is by "code is written perfect the first time" which is akin to "first time right" or "Zero Defects" in the world of Quality
  5. " Out Of Sight Is out of Mind" The above phrase is the core of understanding the importance of visual controls. The human mind is wired to capture what is seen more deeply than any other means of communication. Visual control is the most effective first line of action for preventing a problem. The Visual control and visual display are branched out of visual management and are used in every facets of our lives. Visual Control It forces one to take an appropriate action or drives a specific behavior. Traffic lights, Tool Crib and color coding of an electrical equipment/wires are a classic set of visual controls. Visual Display It Just conveys some information which is considered good to know. Road side hoardings, posters and maps are a classic set of visual display. Visual control may be deployed using three mechanisms * Prevention: Full fledged Poka Yoke to prevent the problems. Eg Emergency button on a treadmill * Control: Control the situation by breaking the flow of problems. Eg Machine lock outs * Warning: Warning through Alerts and Andon lights in a Machine shop The bottom line is "A picture is worth a thousand words"
  6. User Stories if well captured is a treat for the readers. INVEST acronym is a set of 6 guidelines coined by Bill Wake, a Senior consultant with Industrial Logic. The term was first used in an article by him and subsequently found its way to his book "Extreme Programming Explored" . INVEST stands for: * Independent: Stories should not overlap else could pose problems for prioritization * Negotiable: Should focus on the user requirement rather than diving into how it was met. * Valuable: Must depict value to the customer * Estimable: Stories giving information enough to arrive at rough estimate is acceptable * Small: The scope of the stories should be crisp so as to complete it in a few days * Testable: Story that has no user acceptance criteria cannot be tested and hence merits defining the same. The INVEST guidelines have some roots from SMART(Specific,Measurable,Achievable,Realistic,Timebound) framework and also gives clear shades of using MECE(Mutually Exclusive and Collectively Exhaustive)framework.
  7. " Designing for the People With the People" The above phrase is the essence of Human Centric Design(HCD) whose sole purpose is to solve the problems of the human beings while they interact with various products and services. Every Product and Service has been designed to meet one or more human needs and they have been constantly evolving with the needs becoming more and more sophisticated and complex. The three phases of HCD are: * Inspiration or Sympathy * Ideation * Experimentation or Implementation. The Core principles of HCD are: * Focus upon the people- Who & What context? * Find the right problem-Focus on the core problem * System thinking- Think of big picture with all possible human touch points * Validation-Testing the solutions with the real people and iterations till the delight is experienced Some of the classic examples of HCD are: * The current day toothbrushes come friendly for all ages with better grip and well crafted bristles . * The honey now comes in a trendy squeezy inverted containers to do away with associated spill and mess. * The current day range of office furniture is a delight to the user with great ergonomics considering all dimensions of anthropometry.
  8. " What's the worth of the work done so far" The above phrase is the basis for the genesis of the concept Earned Value(EV).The EV Analysis(EVA) enables the project managers to measure the progress of the project beyond just reviewing the traditional cost and schedule metrics. Such analysis is possible only if the scope is frozen and project details are known upfront. The three important pillars of EVA which determines the direction of the project progress in terms of the what the project has accomplished so far are: Earned Value(EV) also termed as Budgeted Cost of Work Performed(BCWP) Actual Cost(AC) also termed as Actual Cost of Work Performed(ACWP) Planned Value(PV) also termed as Budgeted Cost of Work Scheduled(BCWS) Any deviations from the Budgeted values are captured at the first level using the Schedule Variance(SV) and Cost Variance(CV) by using the following expressions: * SV=EV- PV * CV=EV-AC The second level of project progress performance is captured using Scheduled Performance Index(SPI) and Cost Performance Index(CPI) using the following expressions: * SPI= EV/PV An SPI = or > 1 indicates a favorable condition and a value of < 1 indicates an unfavorable condition * CPI= EV-AC An CPI = or > 1 indicates a favorable condition and a value of < 1 indicates an unfavorable condition Drawback of EVA EVA fails to capture the real worth of the project progress in agile project conditions where the details are unknown and uncertainties are high. EPC contract projects like Solar energy projects are such classic cases where the multiple suppliers and multiple contractors are involved in multi location scenario.
  9. Three Point Estimate vs PERT Prelude 1. Project management demands shades of both science and art and does follow a systematic process. Cost,Time,Quality and Scope management being the core facets of project management and lack of their planning adversely affects the project completion. Whereas several techniques are available for estimating project cost and time,Three point estimate and Project Evaluation and Review Technique(PERT) are the most popular ones. Three Point Estimate 2. The three point estimate is arrived at by taking simple mathematical average of the the optimistic, most likely and pessimistic estimates in arriving at expected estimate. This estimate follows a triangular distribution. The average(mean)and standard deviation (SD) are calculated using the following expressions: Expected Estimate(mean/average) = E = (O+M+P) O> Optimistic(Best Case) value 3 M> Most Likely( Likelihood case) value P> Pessimistic(Worst Case) value Standard Deviation(SD)= √ [((O − E)2 + (M − E)2 + (L − E)2) / 2] The expected estimate and SD calculated as above put together helps us to translate project estimates to Confidence Levels(CL).Usually, we consider 95% CL(E+2 SD) for project estimates in general. The Triangular Distribution curve of the Three point estimate is shown below: PERT 3. PERT is used for scheduling, organizing and integrating different events of a project under conditions of uncertainty where the required time for completion of a task/event is unknown.It has its origin in the US Navy and has been used by majority of project managers across industries. to estimate project duration and cost. It is a probabilistic approach leveraging the three point estimate method and follows Beta distribution. The PERT estimate formula is a weighted average: Expected Estimate = ( O+4M+P ) O> Optimistic(Best Case) 6 M> Most Likely( Likelihood case) P> Pessimistic(Worst Case) Standard Deviation (SD) = (P − O)/6 The Beta Distribution curve of PERT time estimate is shown below: How both are Different PERT follows a Beta distribution whereas Three point(TP) estimate follows a triangular distribution as shown above PERT estimate is a weighted average whereas TP estimate is simple average as can be seen from their formulae Evidently, the Expected value and SD for both are different as can be seen from their formulae. A simple Scenario: Construction of a subway: O= 4 Months,P= 8 Months & M=6 months TP Expected Value=(4+6+8)/3=18/3=6 months TP SD= √((4+0+4)/2)= 2 months PERT Expected Estimate= (4+24+8)/6=36/6=6 months PERT SD= (8-4)/6=4/6=0.66 months
  10. Understanding Body Storming “If you think user research is expensive, you should look at the cost of building the wrong thing.” - Mario Maruffi Context and Genesis The above quote fits perfectly with the subject as any research in the right direction will only add value to the product or service destined to change the way we live and operate. Same is with the time tested research method of Body storming which indeed is the first step in design thinking which helps the designers/researchers to roleplay the user experience of a yet to be born product and service at the environment of its use. It is a powerful technique of generating ideas using number of simulation and brainstorming/role-play cycles to narrow down to user experiences that is delightful and beyond mere user satisfaction. It's origin dates back to 2009 as a result of the collaboration between an American dance company Black Label and University of Minnesota Where dose it fit in the Design process? The design of any product or service follows a typical cycle of preliminary research, solution design, testing, additional research if necessary, finetuning the design and repeat the process till design specs are crystalized. Body storming takes this process to the environment where the solution is to be deployed where the researcher can observe the users/customers, participate in the exercise as well as understanding the user’s needs, behavior with respect to their context. The ideas generated during the process is communicated and feedback is received on the spot so that improvisation can be done in one breath. In this method, users also become part of the design team where they can critique design ideas and influence design decisions that will ultimately impact their work and life. Bodystorming can be performed with a limited number of respondents, usually limited to 10, as the more the number of participants, the complexity and time will go up with each additional participant there after. The props used during bodystorming must be real items existing in the physical environment of the users/customers. Pros and Cons of Bodystorming Pros: Reflection, Empathy, Heightened awareness, first hand user experience and connection between researcher & users tops the list. Cons: Time consuming, discomfort for some users, social sensitivity and requirement of an astute/well trained researcher tops the list. A Personal Account Had a great experience of being a part of body storming exercise undertaken by a baker/researcher for their product and service at their "Live Kitchen" environment. They believed in bringing the best of their product quality blended with transparency in their service to the potential customers in the area. The below quote sums it all. "At the end of the day is how the user remembers the experience. Focus on key experiences." -Shawn Borsky
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