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Saravanan MR

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  1. What is Iceberg theory: The Iceberg theory was written by American journalist Hemingway, This theory is widely used in many industries / sectors as a problem solving technique or methodology. It talks about what is visible and what is not visible in the iceberg, Very little portion (15%) of the iceberg (The Tip) is visible and the remaining (85%) portion of the iceberg is invisible and immersed in the water. This model enhances the team to think beyond the immediate causes / events visible to everyone. It shall provide complete insight into any difficult problems. The model emphasize 15% are visible and remaining 85% are below the water level. Source: Marketbusiness.com We generally use the phrase “you know the tip of the iceberg.” It means that we know only the visible portion of the iceberg and so many things are hidden just below the tip of the iceberg. When we talk about some problem or event we have to dive deeper to see from top of the iceberg to bottom of the iceberg to understand the complete picture of the event or problem / situation. While consider any problem, Most of the cases we can see only the highly visible causes and invisible causes are not noticed at all during the problem solving process. So, This model emphasizes looking at the invisible portion where more causes / information are located. Also the quantum of the invisible portion contributes more than the tip of the iceberg. In industrial scenarios we often use this model to resolve problems like to reduce the number of LTA (lost time accidents) and to reduce COPQ (Cost of poor quality). Here we will see how it is used in COPQ. COPQ: The activities and processes that do not deliver the agreed performance / specification and / or expected outcomes. Most of the the traditional organization the COPQ identified between 4 - 5% of the sale whereas in six sigma organizations identify between 15 to 25% of sale, the reason behind that is the six sigma organization go below the tip of the iceberg whereas in traditional organization looks only on the tip of the iceberg. Hidden COPQ: This cost will deal with hidden chronic issues in the process COPQ ranges from 15-25% of Sales The actual cost of poor quality is difficult to arrive, On tip of the iceberg is the visible cost and the hidden cost is just below the water line which are the real chronic problems. In the visible part, we can see rework, rejection, waste, inspection cost, goods return etc. whereas in the invisible part sales lost due to poor product quality, excess inventory, unused capacity, premium freight cost and overdue receivable etc. This tool is used in many areas notably in Quality, Problem solving, understanding of market, Cultural analysis etc. The theory clearly taught us to not see the situational data, dive deeper and look for chronic events, This model is also called omission theory or model. Example in safety topic: Source: Research gate.net
  2. What is shadow board: The shadow board is a visual board to set up tools. The outline or shadow of the tool is drawn or printed on the board to make sure the tool is kept over the specific location of the shadow when not in use. This system allows operators to locate the tools very quickly and ensure that “place for everything and everything in their place”. As part of lean and 5 S implementation the shadow board plays a key role in reducing time, more visibility, clean environment and improving safety employee satisfactions. It is used in manufacturing and service sectors aiming to organize the workplace in a better way to improve efficiency, safety, housekeeping and visual management. Human beings react quickly with pictures rather than statements or stickers. Shadow board usage in different work locations: Shadow / Kaizen foam board: The drawing of the tool can be printed on the board or shadow foaming board also can be used. The foaming board is made with two colors one for background and another one color for tool cavity / impression so that the missing tools can be identified quickly. Nowadays most of the tool boxes come with tool cavity / impression so that missing tools can be identified quickly also to ensure place for everything's and everything in their place concept. The foam board is also called Kaizen foam board, Mostly in lean manufacturing companies tool box / drawers with kaizen foam board. Shadow board - Safety - LOTO (Lockout and Tagout): It is very much useful for safety dept. too, LOTO shadow board is widely used in industries today, This board shall ensure availability of all kinds of LOTO system and very much visual control. Industrial hygiene area: The board is used in industrial hygiene tools storage as well, You can see the below pic for the same. The shadow board is used in many industries for visual management to improve the efficiency and effectiveness. Preparation of shadow board: Step 1: Select the right material with appropriate slots or holes Step 2: Arrange the tools in proper way Step 3: Make border or outline the tools with permanent marker Step 4: Hang the tools and use it in appropriate way The following shall be ensured: Which tools are most frequently used shall be identified and placed Quick reach location Appropriate and more visible area Ensure nearest to the workplace Avoid more than one step to remove the tool / quick pick system Keep some space between the tools so that it will be easy for pickup and place it again Ensure proper fixing of the board to avoid any safety incident as many tools shall lead to increase the weight of the board. Dust and dirt free location, frequent cleaning is required. If needed, the shadow or cavity + name of the tool can be printed on the board if the board is shared with other colleagues for easy understanding. The key benefits of Shadow board: Improvement in productivity Clear visibility and systematic storage Quick traceability Accountability is ensured Optimum space utilization Saving of time Error reduction Improve tools life Reduction in tools replacement cost Thanks for reading
  3. Heinrich accident Triangle: In 1930, Heinrich was working in travel insurance and published the theory called Heinrich triangle after his extensive study about health and safety in workplace accidents. This theory became popular and also called Heinrich’s law. The Heinrich law triangle shows the relationship ratio with the number of accidents / incidents resulting in no injury (near miss / unsafe act / condition), minor injury (First aid / NLTA) and serious injury (LTA / Fatality), The ratio is 300-29-1. He also emphasized that 88% of accidents are due to human decision towards unsafe acts. He has concluded this after studying the report generated by supervisors. Hence, One of the criticisms about the Heinrich triangle is that the model over emphasizes the people's behavior and not much attention was given to systems and procedures. It is based on probability and assuming that the number of accidents is indirectly proportional to severity of the accident. The conclusion is that a minimum number of minor incidents will reduce major accidents, But that is not necessarily the case. The above pictures show that 3000 unsafe acts / conditions, 300 near misses, 29 minor injuries lead to one fatal accident. Most of the organizations conduct root causes analysis on some critical injury and fatal accident which is more visible in nature but no one works on near miss, unsafe condition and acts. The below pictures shall provide the meaning of unsafe act / condition, near miss and accidents. However the definitions are provided below for better understanding. Unsafe condition and acts: Hazardous or physical conditions or circumstances which lead to an accident are called unsafe conditions whereas an unsafe act is a violation of procedure or system which could lead to accidents. Near miss: Safety incident in which no injury and/or illness happens, but has the potential to do so under slightly different conditions. PSSE: Potentially serious safety event: The near miss or unsafe condition / act which by associating credible aggravating factors with the actual conditions, could have led to a major or serious safety incident or an occupational disease or a fatality. Examples of aggravating factors: The human or organizational factor, Equipment failure, an external factor (EX. adverse weather conditions,) Accidents: LTA Lost time accident: Injury to and/or work-related illness of an employee be absent from the workplace for a minimum of one full workday. NLTA Non-lost time accident: Injury to an employee, while working does not prevent him/her from returning to work on the same day, or the day following the accident, after a medical treatment or upon such prescription by a licensed healthcare professional. NLTAs are divided into: NLTA without restriction: when the impacted person can normally resume his/her regular duties, NLTA with restriction (also called modified duty): when the impacted person can resume his/her regular duties but with a temporary restricted work assignment, light duty or reduced working hours. First aid: Injury to and/or work-related illness of an employee while working, that: does not prevent the person from resuming his/her work on the same day, or the day following the incident. The following examples are considered as first aid: using non prescription medication, cleaning, flushing or soaking superficial wounds, using wound coverings such as bandages, steri-strips™, using temporary immobilization, Fatality: Death, through injury and/or illness, of one person, while working. Conclusion: The ultimate aim of the Heinrich triangle is to widen the bottom of the triangle to identify and analyze the at risk behaviors / unsafe conditions / unsafe acts / near misses to avoid any major injuries. These are all called leading indicators, Here the important thing is all the observations like unsafe act / condition / behavior / near misses shall be analyzed through root cause analysis / 5 why / HAZOP study / 8 D method or any other problem solving methodology to identify the correct root cause and terminate it permanently. Nowadays most of the companies are working more on leading indicators rather than working on lagging indicators. If the organization achieves the target of leading indicators then it will eliminate any accident or incident. It means we can easily achieve our lagging indicators ( 0 LTA / 0 NLTA / 0 Fatal accidents) by identifying and analyzing all the leading indicators. BBS (behavior based safety also one of the leading indicators to engage people and have dialogue with them to understand the real problems. The below picture shows the same about leading and lagging indicators. Most of the organizations work on tip of the iceberg means on the lagging indicators after the accident occurred but matured organization work on the invisible part of the iceberg where leading indicators are appearing. Somehow, The same concept is applicable for CoPQ (cost of poor quality), we always work on the major customer complaints and forget to take permanent action of local NCR non conforming report. We have to work on invisible area to strengthen the safety and quality system Thanks for reading
  4. Poisson Distribution: The French Mathematician Siméon Denis Poisson who provided a systematic mathematical way to solve such a problem in the 18th century about a large number of possible events where the occurrence is very rare or small. It shall be used for discrete distributions which measure the probability of possible events in a particular time period. In other words, it describes the random occurrence of events in a particular time period. The Poisson distribution is also called the law of small numbers. The reason behind that is the occurrence of the event is very rare in the large number of events. The number of occurrences fluctuate about its mean λ and with the standard deviation of the square root of λ . The correlation between mean and standard deviation counting independently is also useful. The confidence interval of Poisson mean calculated by using relationship between Poisson and Chi-square distribution, In the Poisson process, The data are discrete, independent to each other and mutually exclusive. The Poisson and binomial distribution are applicable for attribute and discrete data. The Poisson is an approximation of binomial distribution. The binomial is used to calculate the probability of the number of successes obtained from n trial with p probability, whereas in Poisson distribution is a special case of binomial distribution as n will be infinity and while keeping the expected number of successes remain the same. Characteristics: This distribution is generally used for describing the probability distribution of an event with respect to time or space Suitable for analyzing situations where the no. of trials (remember sample size in Binomial distribution) is very large (tending towards infinity) and probability of success in each trial is very small (tending towards zero). Hence applicable for predicting occurrence of relatively rare events like plane crashes, car accidents etc. and therefore used in Insurance industry Can be used for prediction of no of defects Poisson distribution formula is as below: Where: λ(lambda)= Mean number of occurrences during interval x= number of occurrences desire e= The base of the natural log (equals to 2.71828) Mean of a Poisson distribution μ= λ Std. dev of a Poisson distribution σ= √λ The width of the distribution increases with μ, as it indicates that the uncertainty will increase with an increase of x. Conditions for Poisson distribution: Events are independent of each other. Rate of event is constant (events per period, area, volume, length etc) Two events cannot occur parallel or simultaneous As an example 1: An automobile company has average defects per unit (DPU) 0f 0.3, what is the probability they would find 3 defects in a vehicle? Here we can use Poisson distribution to calculate the probability. We can do this Manually, or some online calculator or standard table as well. Please refer to the below methods for more understanding. Manually calculated: The same example did in the Poisson calculator as below: The same can be obtained from Poisson distribution table: As an example 2: There are an average of 0.3 accidents per day on the highway between 2 cities, what is the probability that there will be 3 or more accidents in a day? Here we can use Poisson distribution to calculate the probability. This problem also can be calculated based on the above methods. Thanks for reading
  5. To understand the escape point, First we will begin with 8D methodology: What is 8 D: The 8 D (8 Disciplines) is a problem solving tool / methodology widely used in industries. It is mainly used for corrective action processes in both manufacturing and service industries. This tool focuses on correct root cause and permanent corrective and preventive action, It follows the systematic 8 steps methodology for problem solving. Most of the automotive industries are using 8 D form for identifying the correct root cause and eliminating the recurring problem by implementing appropriate corrective and preventive action. Most of the customer complaints are handled through the 8 D processes to identify the correct root cause to reduce or eliminate the CoPQ (Cost of poor quality). 8 D approach as follows: (All Ds are not explained, D4 is explained to answer the question of escape point) What is Escape point in 8 D process: Here D4 is considered as an “escape point”. Here We isolate and verify each root cause against problem description and test the data. Isolate and verify the location in the process where the real root cause could have been detected but not detected hence the problem transferred to next stages. This point is called an escape point. Any processes there shall be a barrier to stop / identify the defect, If the defect is not detected in the first stage or real root cause at first level then the cause shall transfer and become a defect hence the escape point shall be identified during the 8 D process to make permanent solution. D4 is one of the most vital and important D in the 8 D process. The reason is to identify and verify the real root cause of the failure in the process or product. There are many causes related to one problem like Y = f(X1,X2,X3…...Xn). Here we need to find the right X to identify and validate the causes. This shall not be done through brainstorming or nominal group techniques, We may use 5 Whys or cause and effect diagrams, to map causes against the problem identified. Main activities involved in D4: This step consists of performing the failure analysis and investigation needed to determine the root cause of the problem: A structured method such as cause and effect matrix, is / is not table, or 5 – why technique is required for root cause identification. The detailed description of the actual defect / failure mechanism shall be given, to show that the failure has been fully understood. ASK as many WHYs to ensure the real root cause is addressed. The Is/Is Not tool and the cause and effect matrix should be revised to assist in root cause analysis and more details become known. Other root cause analysis tools such as hypothesis testing or quick DOE’s can also be employed to help determine the exact root cause of the problem. All details should be included in the 8D as attachments. Note: WHYs should be described clearly. Subsequent WHY must answer the question “Why” for the previous why statement, leading to the actual ROOT CAUSE. Do not just put in disconnected statements to point to the root cause you think it is. The maximum amount of evidence must be provided to show that 1)That the root cause is the real culprit behind the problem 2) That all the other potential causes can be excluded. Escape Root Cause Description: Similarly as above, identify (with 5 Whys) the reason why we didn’t detect it. Was the process control plan not comprehensive? Think carefully about why the problem escaped. Careful not to blame the operator as most often it is a weak system that allows the operator to make a mistake without providing help to detect the actual error and prevent it from occurring. Description of Root Cause to WHY not predicted: Why was it not predicted in the FMEA, consider the following questions to arrive at your root cause. Was no FMEA created for this process/system Current FMEA not good enough, review needed? Modifications to the system over the years were not updated? Is the control chat evaluation done or not? Out of control limits points to be checked thoroughly and appropriate action shall be initiated as and when needed. Main benefits of 8 D: Team orientation and engagement Lesson learned can be shared with other business line or product line Can create a database for problems and causes To bring the process under control Reduce CoPQ Better understanding on system change Example of 8 D form: Thanks for reading
  6. The RICE scoring mode: Rice is a prioritization framework, Generally used in market research / project / product selection before launch. It's used by project managers to prioritize and make decisions about which product is important and reach quickly with less effort in the market. Prioritization is always a challenging process, hence there are many ways to do prioritization, Rice is one of the methodology to conduct it. It's a framework model to support product managers to conclude and to finalize the products and features. It shall enable product managers to conclude reliable decisions, minimize human biases in decision making, and help them prioritize and present to the leadership team. RICE stands for as below: R - Reach I - Impact C - Confidence E - Effort Reach: How many people we are estimating to REACH out by introducing this initiative / products / service in a given timeframe. We have to decide 2 things: one is how many people will reach out and another one is in what timeframe. The timeframe could be 1 month, 1 quarter or year based on our research scope.The same way the reach is measured for how many new users / number of transactions / free-signup etc. As an example if we assume that there are 600 new users / transactions then our REACH is 600. Impact: It talks about what could be the impact of this new initiative / features, It shall be a quantitative measure. Like how many new conversions will be there when users encounter it. We can also say that How many people who see this initiative / feature will buy the product. It is difficult to measure the impact however we can use some scoring method as below 3 = very high impact 2 = high impact 1 = medium impact .5 = low impact .25 =Very impact Assume that our Impact is high, It means Impact is 2 Confidence: This is one of the quantitative measures in percentage (%), This shall measure the level of confidence of reach and impact. We may use the data for reach from past history / some expert opinion (reliable data) whereas impact is purely gut feel data. Here the confidence component shall nullify the impact error (not reliable data) by providing the right confidence level. The Confidence levels as levelled below. 100% = high confidence 80% = medium confidence 50% = low confidence Assume that if our confidence level is 50% (for one initiative - A) then we have to look into different initiatives, because our confidence level is low. In other hands, If the confidence level is 100% for other initiatives then we are in the right initiatives. Effort: All of the factors we have discussed about Reach, Impact and Confidence represent the potential benefits whereas the Effort is the single score that represents the effort / cost / number of persons required to build it / number of hours required to construct the initiatives or features. It is always good to have less effort / cost to increase the RICE score. It's generally measured in the number of people / months or the work that one team member can do in a month. The quantification of effort is as simple as reach scoring data. We have to simply estimate the total number of persons / resources required to complete the initiative / features in a given period of time. As an example, if we estimate a project that will be completed by three person in a month, our effort score will be 3. Anything less than a month shall be considered as a 0.5. Example: Assume that we have 3 features with respective data for RICE. We can have the highest score among the 3, hence we can prioritize and make decisions on features 3. Limitation: Some stakeholders go through in detail and raise more questions and may not be happy about our assumptions hence better to have fact based data. Sometimes it's difficult to reproduce the same RICE score due to many assumptions and expertise opinion involves. Thanks for reading
  7. PEST: PEST is mainly used to identify the external factors affecting the organizational operations; The acronym of PEST stands for Political, Economical, Social and technological. Some times PESTEL also used to find environmental and legal factors. This tool is mainly used for market analysis and to become more competitive in the market. This tool shall identify all the external factors affecting the organization and the output of this tool shall be used to frame the action plan for improvements. Its mainly used for strategic management / environmental scanning / marketing analysis. Political Factors: The political factors contribute a lot in regulation of businesses, and the spending power of consumers and other businesses. We must consider and deeply analyze the parameters influencing the organization. Economic Factors: Its play a key role to understand country economical scenario, It will define the buyer or seller market. The inflation, GDP, per capita GDP incomes needs to be analyzed thoroughly. Sociocultural Factors: The social and cultural influences on business vary from country to country. It is very important that such factors shall be considered. Mainly on demography (age groups, Male / Female ratio, Health etc), people taste, customs, Technological Factors: The technological factor is vital for competitive advantage, and is a major driver of globalization. As an example today everyone talks about green energy / Green H2. The technology must be updated based on the trend and current requirement of customers, environmental and regulatory requirements. Another example like Motorola was introduced walkie Taki, remote control and mobile phone, due to the technological advancement failure Motorola is not having significant market share in mobile phone market. Thanks
  8. Bowling chart: It is a visual way to monitor and address the company KPI or the policy deployment objectives. This chart will provide quick update of the organization by viewing this chart. This tool is extensively used in lean organization. Objectives / KPI are derived from Vision, Mission and Policy, These all are inter related and having strong link from one another. There are 3 levels of KPI: - Measurable KPIs - High level KPIs to see the healthiness or strategy level objectives of an organization of an organization. - Manageable KPIs - Its measured in the local level / Dept. level / at operation level objectives are linked with Measurable KPIs. - Actionable KPIs- Low level Objectives managed and measured at shop floor level KPIs, If we improve actionable KPIs then automatically manageable and measurable KPI will improve. Bowling chat can be used any of the above KPIs and mainly focuses on SQDCM (Safety, Quality, Delivery, Cost and Morale) at all levels. Generally there are 2 rows one for Plan and another one for Actual, There colors are used for visually understand it quickly. Green : KPI Targets are met Yellow: KPI Targets are under performing but better than last year Red: KPI performance meeting the target. Format Example: Thanks
  9. SWOT analysis is one of the strategic tool to identify and evaluate the business strength, weakness, opportunity and treat. It is commonly used for person / organization / market study etc. SWOT analysis play a key role in any organization provided the team is free to provide the facts so that real situation will be visible to take any actions and look for an opportunity. Strength: Shall identify the organizational strength like brad name, Safety, High quality with low cost, Technology and strong balance sheet etc. Some of the strength most of the organization cannot imitate like culture, team engagement and system etc. Such a strength shall separate the organization from competitors. Its kind of Blue ocean strategy, If the organization have strong strengths then they may stand far away from other competitors. Weakness: Its stop an organization to move forward or perform well. The weakness shall be proactively identified and removed from the system. The weaknesses are low brand image, weak supply chain, low market share and high level of debt. Opportunity: Its an favorable external factors will support or lead an organization for competitive advantage. Example most of the countries now moving towards H2 energy with Govt funding / low tax etc. Such an external factors shall support organization to open a new market as an opportunity. Threat: Its refer to potential harm or adverse impact to an organization. Country political instability, regulation on high tax, high raw material cost and etc all considered as threat to business. So such a threats shall be identified in advance and actions shall be executed. Strength and weakness are considered as internal factors and Opportunity and Treats are considered as external factors. The External factors also equally important for organizational growth (market change, political change, monitory polices. The adequate actions shall be executed once identified all such threats and opportunities. Thanks
  10. Dear All, It was used in Japan for story telling, The same was adopted in Toyota production system (TPS) in the latter stage. It is a strong self audit mechanism of our own system by different trained internal stockholders / auditors. The beauty of this system is its following: P-D-C-A, Poka-yoke, Visual factory, employee engagement culture, Kaizen and CI. This board will have a predefined audit plan, checklist (cards), colored dots to indicate the status, The audit shall be done by various stakeholders including GM and reported on daily / weekly basis. By seeing the board we can say the story of the plant. This system is very well used in preventive or autonomous maintenance and production lines or any service industries. This shall provide a complete structure to Gemba walk. The information on cards shall be - 5 W 1 H- who, what,, where, when, why and how to adopt as per process flow. This system is the way to standardize, be more visible and to be quick on Gemba walk. PDCA - The process is fully following the PDCA approach Poka-Yoke - It's a mistake proofing system as the complete cycle is visible and the flow of cards is monitored by every stakeholder and the system is robust. Visual factory - It will give you the snapshot of the process / service line by seeing the board EE Culture - It shall promote / motivate people to engineer by themselves to see the everyday progress and achievement. Kaizen - We can celebrate everyday by seeing any one of the dept. (HSE, Q, Productivity, 5S etc) Continuous improvement: At last it's a continuous improvement process as a whole. How it can be used in Service industries: Their daily and week KPI status / 5 S and / HSE / Quality shall be monitored through this card.
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