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Manas Mohapatra

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  1. Betting odds are being used by bookmakers as a way of presenting the probability of a specific results in an event. There are 3 types of Odds are used in betting market: 1. Fractional Odds 2. Decimal Odds 3. Moneyline Odds Fractional odds: It tells us the potential winning regarding our stake. Numbers on the left-hand side tells us the potential profit if we stake the number on the right-hand. Example: A $1 bet on Team A to win at 2/1 will return $3 if successful. Of those returns, $2 is profit and the remaining $1 is the bettor’s stake. 10/1: $10 is the profit against every $1 5/2: $5 is the profit against every $2 4/11: $4 is the profit against every $11 The number in left-hand side is smaller than the one mentioned in right-hand side, the bet is stated to as odds-on and when the opposite is true, that is referred to odds-against, while odds of 1/1 are stated to as evens. Decimal odds: It tells us our potential winnings inclusive of our stake. All that’s required to work out the total returns, it to multiply stake with the odds. For example, a $1 on Team A to win at 3.00 will return $3 if successful. Like the bet with fractional odds above, $2 of those returns are profit and $1 is the bettor’s stake. 10.00: $1 bet would return $10 inclusive of stake. 2.50: $4 bet would return $10 inclusive of stake. 1.50: $2 bet would return $3 inclusive of stake. The equal value of 1/1 odds in a decimal odd is 2.00. Moneyline Odds: It tells us the potential profit from a bet. The simplest way to understand how it works, is to use an example: Team A +130 Team B -150 The + sign next to Team A’s odds signifies that they are the underdogs in the match. A successful bet will return $130 in profit for every $100 staked. If Team A win, a $10 bet will return $23 - $13 in profit and the $10 stake. The minus sign in front of Team B’s odds denotes that they are favorite to win the match. The bettor will receive $100 for a successful bet with a $150 stake. A $10 stake, meanwhile, would return $16, $6 of which would be profit. Thank You!
  2. Introduction to TSA: Time Series analysis is the method of studying the characteristics of the response variable in respect to the time as the independent value. To evaluate the target variable in the name of prediction or forecasting, use the time variable as the point of reference. Components of TSA: Trend: There is no fixed interval and disagreement within the given dataset is a continuous timeline. The trend might be Negative, Positive or Neutral Seasonality: There are regular or fixed interval shifts within the dataset in a continuous timeline. Would be bell curve type Cyclical: There is no fixed interval, uncertainty in movement and its pattern As per my understanding Cyclical is the most difficult component to handle as it has no fixed interval and uncertain movements and pattern. Some applications of time Series Analysis used in the Business Excellence world are mentioned below: Time series analysis can be used in Business forecasting, Business development as Time series forecasting helps businesses to make informed business decisions, as the process analyses past data patterns it can be useful in forecasting future possibilities.
  3. Kotter’s 8 steps of change management: This model for change management helps to understand the change management thoroughly before implementing them in to the organization. This is more straightforward implementation of the changes in the organization. In this model 8 steps are involved to make the change management effective which are mentioned below. 1. Create an urgency: a. In this step the potential threats should be identified and highlighted. It can also be used during the all the stage where the potential threats to the project can be identified and highlighted so that we can fix them. b. We can also examine the opportunities that can be selected through some effective intervention. c. Involvement of subject mater experts and key stakeholders on the issue of the changes in Improve phase to avoid further negative impact on other factors. 2. Form a powerful coalition a. Identifying and involving change leaders and key stakeholders in the change management process to get the things done effectively. b. Need to form a powerful change coalition to work as a team c. Identification of the weak areas and involving the key stake holders across the functions and working in the multiple departments/function of the organization. Note: During defining the team for a DMAIC project we can build a good team following the above points. 3. Developing a vision & strategy a. Determination of the core value and defining the vision and the strategies to realize a change in the organization b. Vision should be well described by the change leaders so that all the stake holders and end user can understand clearly. Note: This can be referred during the goal setting process and defining the goal statement in Define stage and in Improve stage the actions and changes are to be clearly mentioned. 4. Communicating the Vision a. Communication of the vision is very important and should be connected with all the aspects like training and performance b. The issues of people and organization should be handled carefully and honestly 5. Removing the Obstacles a. Continuous checking of the obstacles and potential barriers which can resist the changes b. Implement proactive approach to eliminate the barriers/obstacles found in the change management process Note: We can identify the barriers/obstacles by creating the FMEA whenever it is required in DMAIC projects. 6. Creation of short-term win a. Creation of short-term plan to win always a better idea to get the success in the change management. b. Focus should be on the changes where cost is not involved/low cost and easily achievable c. We should create multiple short-term plans instead of one long term plan to get success, that boost the confidence level of the change management team/project leader and team on wining a small success as well. Note: We should find out the actions where cost is not involved and easy to implement during taking decision on implementation of changes. 7. Consolidating the Gains a. Achieve continuous improvement by analyzing the success. b. Note: Improvement is to be gauges after implementation of the changes in Improve stage. 8. Anchoring the changes a. Discuss the success story regarding change initiatives when ever you find an opportunity b. Ensure the changes is done successfully and integrated in the organization & it is visible to all Note: In improve and control phase we can refer the above points. Thank You!
  4. INVEST criteria in Agile plays an important role to design and draft a good user story. It shows you the procedure to prepare the user story in such a way which shows the way to specify the requirement following the Agile value and principles. An effective user story should follow the below criteria: 1. Independent 2. Negotiable 3. Valuable 4. Estimable 5. Small 6. Testable · Independent: The story should not dependent on other story because it might cause the delay in implementation if the other story is taking time. · Negotiable: The story can be more effective when both the product owner and development teams builds a story with shared understanding and connects everyone’s expertise. The product owner and the development team always open to modify the requirement to get an effective result. · Valuable: The user story should state the value to be added and how it will fulfill the user’s requirement along with the risk mitigation plan and cost is to be involved. · Estimable: The story should give enough details to the development team to estimate the size of the story. You should have an idea about size of the story so that you can plan a recapitulation that will deliver the working software. Size is more important to get help in prioritization. · Small: Agile works in short iterations so you can get fast feedback from your users. Small stories always required small iteration if working software is to be delivered for each iteration. · Testable: The software should be eligible for testing before delivering that. If you cannot test any solution, you will not be able to gauge the effectiveness of the solution. So, the software should be testable. Note: As per my understanding the stage Negotiable is most challenging as it needs a strong co-ordination between the product owner and the development team. Thank You!
  5. Human centered design is a very good approach to solve the problems which is mostly used in design and management frameworks which develops resolutions to the problems with an involvement of human thought process in all the steps in problem solving process. This is an approach which builds upon the involvement of participants to produce a solution to the problem. At the initial stages it needs brainstorming, observation where participants can submerge themselves with the problem and community. In later stages, its focus is on community brainstorming, creating the model and prototyping & implementing the solution in community spaces. Once it is implemented, collecting feedback to improvise the model is very much required. It is proven to be a compelling way to help organizations come at things from a different angle and reach better outcomes. Below are the five principles to get the effective results. 1. Empathize: You should understand the people experiencing the problem before going to conclude the problem statement. You should involve brainstorming, observing the problems before concluding. Always get clarity by asking questions instead of assuming anything. Involve the subject mater experts and those who are living with the problems. 2. Define: The problem statement should be well defined so that it is clear enough to understand and take actions instead of any generic statement. 3. Ideate: In this stage we need to collect and gather the ideas through brain storming, interviews with the people living with the problems and always welcome all the ideas from all the participants instead of thinking correct and incorrect ideas. 4. Prototype: After collecting and gathering the ideas to solution, designers should convert the ideas into the experiment to test them in UAT platform or live production to test for the people live with the problems to see if it works. The designer should think about multiple solutions and see the best among them. 5. Test and iterate: In this stage the designers give the prototypes to the end user to implement them in their workplace and come up with their feedback so that the designer can improvise the prototypes based on the feedback and make a final solution. It might require multiple test and re-test to come to a final solution which is accepted by the people facing the problem. Thank You!
  6. 3 Point Estimate or PERT. Three points estimate is a simple and useful approach to estimate the time or cost of work items. It involves three different estimates which are obtained from the subject mater experts. 3- point estimating can be done in two different ways. First one is using the PERT formula and the second one always calculates simple average of three different estimates viz. Optimistic, Pessimistic, and Most Likely. 1. Optimistic estimate: The expected amount of work or time required for performing an activity with an understanding that no obstacles is there and everything is smooth. 2. Pessimistic estimate: This is based on the opposite assumption to the above, it represents the worst scenario where so many obstacles will be there 3. Most likely estimate: This is considered as the most realistic scenario where one could be insisted to use the mean between the optimistic & pessimistic without a second thought to it. Sometimes, it is also not the appropriate for all the cases. The outcome of the three-point estimate is also called as the triangular distribution of time or cost, comprising of the three estimates. Why 3-points estimate is required: 3-point estimation is very useful for mitigation of project risks. Every project has some inherent risks and most of them occur due to poor estimation. 3- point estimation helps in reducing such risks in projects. When you consider single point estimation, a single value of task estimate is determined. But a single value of task estimate might be inaccurate for the complex tasks. The accuracy of the single point estimation can be improved a lot by finding three different values. The values always help in establishing a range that reduces the estimation risk and improve the confidence. PERT using Beta distribution: PERT stands for Program evaluation and review technique that was developed as an advance project schedule planning & management system. In this method, the most likely estimate receives a multiplier of four where the overall divisor increases to six. The formula is mentioned below: E = (O + (4*M) + P) / 6 where: E = The Expected Amount of Time/Cost, O = Optimistic estimate, M = Most likely estimate, P = Pessimistic estimate. Example: Let’s take an example of going to office from home, we would get three scenarios for going from home to office. Optimistic Scenario – No traffic congestion will be there and the road will be free. Pessimistic Scenario – Huge traffic congestion will be there and need to stop on most of the traffic post. Most Likely Scenario –Regular traffic conditions will be there. Let us assume that we evaluated the three scenarios and arrived at three estimates: Optimistic Value (O): 15 minutes Pessimistic Value (P): 105 minutes Most Likely Value (M): 30 minutes E = (O + (4*M) + P) / 6 E_PERT= (15+4×30+105)/6 E_PERT=40 minutes It essentially means that, in most cases, the trip will take 40 minutes or less. Simple Average Using Triangular Distribution The mean of the three estimated values is determined by following formula. E_SA=(O+P+M)/3 Example and calculation: We will use the three values from the above example and put them in the triangular distribution formula. E_SA=(15+105+30)/3 E_SA= 50 minutes It essentially means that, in most cases, the trip will require 50 minutes or less. Thank You!
  7. Card Sort Vs Affinity Diagram Card sorting finds common patterns in the way different people or group information, while affinity diagramming obtains a consensus result. There are two types of card sort exercises which are explained below: Open Card Sort In this exercise, participants are always given a stack of cards and they are asked to group the cards together as it makes sense to them, there is nothing like correct answer or incorrect answer. After grouping the cards, they name each group. Closed Card Sort In this type exercise, all the participants are grouped and named & they are asked to place each of the cards in one of the per-established groups. The variation of the closed card sort is a partial-open/closed card sort exercise. In a partial-open/closed card sort, the participants start with a closed one, with the exception that they can make changes to the group names, and may add, rename and remove the groups. Affinity Diagram: Affinity diagram follows a process where it is performed by a team or group. This method always taps creativity of the teams. This is appreciable where knowledgeable people participate to include their opinions and insights regarding the issues through brain storming. To get the effective result, the participants number should not more. When Affinity Diagram should be used. 1. When you start a new product, needs as many as good ideas 2. When the issues seem large and complex that cannot be resolved easily 3. When group discretion is very much needed to explore the user-friendly features for any product. Steps to be followed to draw an effective Affinity diagram: 1. Note down all the ideas and collate them so that all the ideas would be visible for all the participants 2. Always try to gather more ideas and explore which seem to be useful for the product. 3. Every idea/note should have the time line to be placed 4. Brainstorm with the team and shortlist the notes & group all the ideas mentioned on the notes based on the relation between them 5. Remove other notes which are repeated 6. Present your analysis to others stake holders in the company in an easy-to-understand manner Thank You!
  8. Agile Vs LEAN: Both Agile and Lean are flexible, quick and end-user-focused viewpoints which help teams to develop and produce high-quality products and services quickly maintaining the sustainability. Both the methods have the goal to provide customers a high-quality product rapidly, one iteration at a time. Only having a better understanding of both Agile and Lean can ensure that teams adopt the principles and accompanying practices of their selected methodology fully to establish a concrete foundation for implementing a mature Agile or Lean model. This is possible once it is accomplished across teams. Organizations can consider a more advanced hybrid scaled Agile and Lean approach allow them to enjoy the sensible and cultural benefits of the two methodologies. Let’s understand the differences between them. which will 1. The first difference is that the Agile methodology focus on the optimization of a development process, the Lean method concerns the optimization of a production process. 2. The Agile methodology is applied within a team. The Lean methodology is usually applied to enhance processes altogether organizations 3. Agile is about helping companies build better products. Lean is about improving the production process to achieve the good quality of the product as the intended outcome. 4. Agile focuses less on the process, and more on the process to make a better product. Lean is usually applied to a repetitive, predictable process, and aims to enhance the method so as to form a far better product 5. The Agile life cycle contains six phases, whereas the Lean life cycle includes seven principles 6. Agile is all about individuals and interactions, Lean is all about eliminating the waste 7. In Agile, dynamic requirement changes are effortless. Lean is not that much flexible for dynamic deliverable changes. Example for point 7: In Agile, change management process is available and easy where in-between we can add the customer requirement where in Lean management process, once we are done with the process designing, adding the customer requirement is difficult.
  9. Shingo Model: Dr. Shingo was an engineer from Japan who was further considered as one of the leading experts in manufacturing practices and the Toyota Production System. One of his important contributions was his understanding of the relationship between Principles, system and tools. Based on his understanding the Shingo model for continuous improvement/process excellence is divided in two parts. The principles are System and Tool. As per his model the research says if you want to sustain the operational excellence, it requires below mentioned fundamental paradigm shifts: 1. Focus is very much needed on both results and the behaviors 2. Ideal behaviors of the organization always flow from the principles which govern the required outcomes 3. A good foundation can only be built by principles upon which you can built a culture which can sustain for a long-term 4. Alignment of the management systems is very much required to create ideal, principle-based behaviors which have the greatest impact on behavior of people of the organization 5. All the available tools (Lean, TQM, JIT & six sigma) always should be ingested into an appropriate system/process to drive ideal behavior and best outcome. 6. The model contained two elements, one is the house and the second one is the diamond. The first element “house” describes the correct principles of operational excellence and the power of balancing the efforts and the second element “diamond” always represents the process of implanting principles into the organization. The well-known Shingo model includes the well-established Lean focus on the results and tools but has also extended this to include wider system such as culture and guiding principles. Based on the Shingo model the Principles of Operational excellence are mentioned below dimensions: 1. Enterprise Alignment 2. Cultural enablers 3. Continuous improvement 4. Result which is the ultimate outcome of the business initiatives Therefore, the approach is both systematic and holistic than many Lean approaches adopted by organizations. This culture also allows them to design their core systems where they can involve a set of appropriate tools into their systems.
  10. This is a model which is used to prioritize the tasks which helps to prioritize the tasks based of four factors. They are Reach, Impact, Confidence and effort. In this model we give a score to all activities based on the factors which were mentioned above. Why RICE Scoring? 1. This method always works based on the data not emotion and opinions for prioritization. 2. This method can be always used to assess ideas, product and projects as well as enhancements 3. This method always tells you about the different factors which went into market product based on the score. 4. Production team can always re-evaluate the metrics which define their business success. The formula to calculate RICE score is: (REACH*IMPACT*CONFIDENCE)/EFFORT All the four factors (RICE) are explained below: R-Reach: How many people you estimated to reach in a particular time frame. Based on this you can decide that how many customer’s transactions can be reached and how many new or existing customers try your new product or features. Your reach score always depends on your estimation, it means the number you estimated that is your reach score. For example, if you are producing a new product and your expectation is 200 new customers along with 500 from your existing customer base are going to have the product in a quarter/month. Then your reach score will be 700. Impact: The impact of the product or features on individuals/customers. Impact is about how much an idea could impact a particular goal for a customer (once can rate the impact based on rating 3-Very high, 2- High, 1-Medium, 0.5- Low and .025- Minimal impact) Confidence: Confidence score always helps to get an unbiased score which brake offsets overly-optimistic impact score. How sure are you of those four factors you gave each project idea? Identifying and judging the accurate confidence level is really a difficult task so we can set levels. We can consider 100% as high confidence, 80% as medium confidence, 50% is low confidence and anything less than 50% is not sure, it means you have given the score as you have not done any market study or you do not have any historical data as well. Effort: To get the project or product launched and complete/reach the customer’s efforts is always required. Hence, we need to plan for the efforts as well. But, keeping in mind that the product/project move with an appropriate pace and have impact with the least amount of effort, we need to estimate the total amount of time the project require for planning, designing and engineering. Effort can be estimated as man hours, man days or man months To move the project faster and have a good impact with the least amount of effort, estimate the total amount of time a project will require from all members of your team: product, design, and engineering. In case one of your projects can take about one week time for planning and 1 to 2 weeks for designing and 2 to 4 weeks for engineering then your effort score will be of 2 persons – months. How to use the Rice scoring method effectively: During using of the RICE scoring method, we need to be more careful of below points to make that effective. 1. We need to focus on the goal so that we can achieve that, if we have a small team where we are not able to push forward the projects 3-5 goals in a quarter. In this case we can get the count down and consider the important goals, if that is also not possible, we can focus on a single goal. 2. Where the team size is larger, we can split the team up into sub-teams so that each team member can get into one goal. We always noticed that if the goal/objective is clear, people enjoy working to achieve the goal. We also keep in mind that all the team members are empowered so that they can get motivation and give their best.
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