singhvipul911

Hi Aseem, Referring to the line "The benefit of D3M is that it gives you the ability to quantify your decision and you have absolute control over the decision making process" from your article I assume you wanted to say that that data will give you absolute control over decision and that refers not to make any lapses. This didn't proved right in Lehman Brothers case and you agreed that it makes mistake. If you agree that this system also makes than I believe this line needs to be rephrased. Carrying on to the other queries I had, I agree Data shows you a way to take decision but it does not mean that its the right way. Data can be manipulated but not instinct . Numbers can be changed but not abilities . What will you say when you see the average package of some college and then make a decision of joining them, can you be sure of making the right decision. What will you say for a teacher who has multiple articles written on his name, can you bet on his ability to be perfect and a master in his profession. How will you judge an author, by the number of volumes that comes out every year or by his/her writing style. Most companies choose the CEO based on their instincts, vision and not on the basis of their data judgment. If Mr. Raghuram Rajan had followed the data then he wouldn't have changed the monetary policies and wouldn't have followed his instincts. Wars are predicted and avoided without data. If data is to be blindly believed then our government is doing a good job which says that the people who are below poverty line has decreased but on the other hand we see the ever increasing cases of poverty and hunger. I believe I have made my case stronger and reduced the importance of data to 50 percent . So the "control" that was "absolute" in your article needs to be "loosened a bit". Thanks and regards Vipul Kumar Singh

Hi Aseem, You sound very convincing regarding your thoughts on D3M and why it is so helpful for the business to grow. As you said numbers help us a lot in taking decision from past experiences. If we have data we can analyse the data and take our decision. Well i would like you to convince me a little bit more. In 2008 Lehman brothers saw its downfall due to subprime crisis, should I assume that they didn't had the data? or that they didn't had the correct data? or that they expected this to happen and they were ready for bankruptcy? Well this was not the case to be, after being set up in 1850 Lehman brothers had seen many problems such as the railroad bankruptcies of the 1800s, the Great Depression of the 1930s, two world wars, a capital shortage when it was spun off by American Express in 1994, and the Long Term Capital Management collapse and Russian debt default of 1998. But they survived it all without falling. It means that they had the belief in them that they have avoided these situations, so they can do it again. Now continuing with the facts Lehman Brothers boomed in the year 2006 and its capital markets surged 56% being the highest in any investment banking or asset management industry.They acquired 5 mortgage firms including the big ones like BNC mortgage. Lehman also reported record profits every year from 2005 to 2007. In 2007 they reported net income of a record $4.2 billion on revenue of $19.3 billion. In Feb 2007, the stock reached a record $86.16, giving Lehman a market cap of close to $60 billion. Lehman brother had this data with them to support their actions, analyzing this available data and previous achievements Chief Financial Officer of Lehman brother said "the risks posed by rising home delinquencies were well contained and would have little impact on the firm's earning". The impact was "so small" that the 4th largest Investment bank lost all its wealth and went into bankruptcy. In 2008 they had all the required data at their side and they couldn't handle it while at the earlier situation which comprised of the biggest crisis in 1930s they came out easily without proper data and data management services . Why the data didn't help them in 2008 when they lost a fight against crisis? I would appreciate is you could clarify my doubts. Thanks and Regards, Vipul Kumar Singh

Hi Aseem, I appreciate the way you write and have made things clear, but I have a a small doubt. When you say deciding about source and quantity of data is based on intuition, don't you think there is too much extra effort involved? First one has to arrive at a consensus with the team regarding the data parameters, then again when the data is processed, the validity of assumptions and the answer is evaluated once more. I feel that this is simply too much work and taking decisions on the basis of intuition would have been an easier affair. Thanks and regards, Vipul Kumar Singh