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Decide everything vs. know when to abstain
Vishwadeep Khatri replied to Vishwadeep Khatri's topic in We ask and you answer! The best answer wins!1. Suhail_J_CaJq Position: View B (Selective coverage — the system must know what it doesn't know) Specific Example: Cites "Health Insurance Prior Authorization" in general terms — routine vs. complex claims (rare conditions, unusual treatment plans, conflicting clinical notes) — but names no specific insurer, no dates, no figures, and no source. Reasoning Quality: Competent. The five-point structure (harm concentration, value of abstention, human review being directionally correct, cost vs. harm, speed vs. correctness) is logically coherent and correctly restates the scenario's own numbers, but it never leaves the hypothetical and adds no external evidence. 2. rajan.arora2000 Position: View B (Selective coverage, without qualification) Specific Example: An extraordinarily well-documented portfolio: Michigan's MiDAS unemployment system (Oct 2013–Aug 2015, ~400 staff cut, ~40,000 algorithm-only fraud determinations, 93% found non-fraudulent by the state Auditor General, Bauserman v. UIA $20M settlement approved Jan 2024); Australia's Robodebt (453,000 people, A$565M net loss per the 2023 Royal Commission); Cigna's PXDX as a negative control (300,000+ denials in two months, 1.2 seconds/case, Kisting-Leung v. Cigna); the UK Post Office Horizon scandal (£1,628M paid to 12,900+ claimants as of June 2026); and card-fraud authorization (Visa/Amex) used as a positive control for View A. Every case is cited with sources, dates, and figures. Reasoning Quality: Exceptional. Corrects the scenario's own arithmetic error ($1,260 vs. the true $104.85 per error avoided), applies Chow's (1970) decision-theoretic reject-option formula, runs sensitivity/robustness checks in both directions, steelmans View A honestly, directly upgrades and rebuts Bex's own example, and closes with a falsifiable, numeric "abstention test" plus a pre-committed condition under which the author would reverse position. 3. GoutamNamata Position: View B (Selective coverage) Specific Example: References "health insurance claims processing" as a strong example but does not name an insurer, cite a source, or provide any documented figures beyond restating the scenario's own numbers. Reasoning Quality: Reasonable. The argument that the escalated 30,000 cases are where harm concentrates is sound and clearly stated, but the post does not go beyond paraphrasing the prompt's own data. 4. Ajay _Wadhwa_bs1h Position: View B (Selective coverage) Specific Example: Names Fannie Mae's Desktop Underwriter specifically, describing its actual process — instant approval for stable-income/clean-credit applicants, automatic routing of self-employed or non-traditional-income borrowers to manual review — and ties this to fair-lending exposure. Reasoning Quality: Good. The "averaging hides where errors land" argument and the point that appeals disproportionately help people who already know how to navigate the system are sharp and original, even though no financial figures or dates are attached to the mortgage example. 5. Naijur Rahman Position: View B (Selective coverage — the system must know what it doesn't know) Specific Example: Derives the AI's hidden ~75.8% accuracy on hard cases from the scenario's own numbers, then supports the position with the Dutch Childcare Benefits scandal (26,000–35,000 families flagged, €20k–60k clawbacks, government fell Jan 2021), the Post Office Horizon scandal (£1.44B paid to 11,300+ claimants), Robodebt, and the FDA-authorized IDx-DR diagnostic system, plus academic citations (Madras et al. 2018 NeurIPS "Learning to Defer," a 2023 Nature Medicine CoDoC study). Reasoning Quality: Exceptional. Directly rebuts Bex point-by-point, cites the machine-learning "long-tail problem" literature to explain why redirecting the $6.5M into R&D wouldn't close the gap, and reframes the fairness argument precisely. 6. anthony rebello Position: View A (Full coverage — let the AI decide everything) Specific Example: Visa Decision Manager (98.83% of transactions resolved automatically), Mastercard's 2025 fraud-prevention survey (80% of organizations eliminated unnecessary manual review; issuers/acquirers saved $5M+ over two years), Gmail (15 billion emails/day, 99.9%+ spam catch rate), and Lemonade Insurance (96% of claims intake automated, 55% fully resolved by AI as of year-end 2025), each with a named source. Reasoning Quality: High quality. The toll-booth analogy is effective, the equity argument (that a review queue is "regressive" against atypical applicants) is a genuine original contribution, and the author honestly engages Meta's 2025–2026 moderation appeals failures as a cautionary design constraint rather than ignoring it. 7. Adeniran_Ilesanmi_GYSH Position: View B (Selective coverage — the system must know what it doesn't know) Specific Example: Names Lemonade, Aviva, AXA, NHS 111, Mayo Clinic, Monzo, Revolut, Stripe, DWP, HMRC, and USCIS, but attaches no citations, dates, or verifiable figures to any of them — the stated percentages (e.g., "reduces claim disputes by 40–60%") appear to be asserted rather than sourced. Reasoning Quality: Competent but ungrounded. The sensitivity tables and "risk-adjusted ROI" model are elaborate, but the cost distributions and probabilities (e.g., a 2% "catastrophic" event at $300,000) are invented for the exercise rather than drawn from documented data, so the quantitative rigor is more decorative than evidentiary. 8. Prateek _Harsh_dl5h Position: View A ("I strongly support View A — Bex's position") Specific Example: Klarna's OpenAI-powered assistant (replaced the work of 700 agents, 2.3 million conversations in month one, resolution time cut from 77 minutes to under 2 minutes, ~$40M annual run-rate savings), Ping An's "Smart Fast Claim" (90%+ of motor claims auto-processed, settled in under 3 minutes), and Visa (233 billion transactions in 2024, cited). The author also honestly addresses UnitedHealth's nH Predict controversy (90% of appealed denials reversed, but under 0.2% of patients ever appealed) and Robodebt as genuine failure modes rather than omitting them. Reasoning Quality: Exceptional. Proposes a concrete alternative architecture (the "AFAR" framework) with its own KPI dashboard, directly derives the same 75.8% hard-case AI accuracy figure independently, and turns the strongest anti-View-A evidence into design requirements rather than dismissing it. 9. Dinesh Selvarajan Position: View A (Full coverage — let the AI decide everything, with humans redeployed to training rather than permanent review) Specific Example: BioCatch behavioral-biometrics fraud detection, described as used in the author's own organization (deployed 2025, flagged 30+ alert types, alert types cut roughly in half over time as the model learned), and Upstart's AI lending platform (2024–2025, 91%+ of loans fully automated, approves 44% more borrowers, ~29% of loans to low-to-moderate income communities). Reasoning Quality: Good. The core insight — that human review should be treated as a training signal rather than a permanent institution — is a genuinely different angle from the other View A responses, and the comparison table is clear, though the argument is less rigorously sourced than Prateek's or anthony's entries. 🏆 Winner: rajan.arora2000 Among the six approved entries, rajan.arora2000 stands apart on all three criteria. On clarity of position, every other approved entry states a view and defends it, but rajan is the only one to formally derive a numeric threshold ("the Abstention Test," with four falsifiable conditions) and pre-commit to reversing his own position if the data changes — a level of intellectual honesty none of the others (including the excellent Naijur Rahman and Prateek_Harsh_dl5h) attempt. On reasoning quality, rajan is the only participant to catch and correct an actual arithmetic error in the scenario itself (the $1,260 figure conflating monthly and annual units), apply a named academic decision-theory framework (Chow, 1970) to compute break-even costs from first principles, and systematically steelman and then dismantle the opposing view point-by-point — going well beyond Naijur Rahman's strong but more narratively structured rebuttal and Prateek_Harsh_dl5h's excellent but comparatively less mathematically rigorous AFAR proposal. On specificity of examples, rajan's five-sector, three-jurisdiction evidence base (Michigan MiDAS, Robodebt, Cigna PXDX as a deliberate negative control, Post Office Horizon, and card-network fraud detection as a positive control) is unmatched in this thread for its use of matched natural experiments, disclosed confounds, and precise, dated financial figures — a level of self-critical, source-dense argumentation that no other entry, on either side of the debate, achieves.
Yesterday
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AI News from ET - Chinese filing implies DeepSeek valuation of around $52 billion
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Decide everything vs. know when to abstain
Dinesh Selvarajan replied to Vishwadeep Khatri's topic in We ask and you answer! The best answer wins!I support View A — Full Coverage. Let the AI decide everything. The numbers tell a story that View B's headline hides: selective coverage costs $6.5M per year for a human review team that is still 93% accurate on complex cases — meaning they get 7 out of every 100 hard decisions wrong anyway. You are not buying certainty for $6.5M. You are buying a 2.5 percentage point accuracy improvement on 30% of cases. That is $1,260 per wrong decision avoided — an expensive band-aid on a problem better solved at the root. This is not an argument for selective coverage. It is an argument for deploying full coverage now, while redirecting human effort from permanent decision-making to active model improvement — so that the AI earns its 97.5% accuracy across all cases, not just the easy ones. View Comparison — Selective Coverage vs Full Coverage + HITL Criterion View B — Selective Coverage Our Approach — View A Full Coverage + HITL Human role Permanent decision-maker on complex cases Temporary trainer to improve the AI End state Two-tier system forever Full AI coverage, increasingly autonomous Cost $6.5M permanent annual line Reduces over time as AI matures Who bears the wait 30% of customers — permanently Nobody — transitional phase only What humans do Review and decide Retrain and improve input quality Goal Patch AI weakness Eliminate AI weakness Bex is right on efficiency, but misses the more important point: that $6.5M is better spent fixing the AI than patching it with human review. Here is what selective coverage gets backwards — it treats human escalation as the destination. It should be the training ground. Every low-confidence case a human reviews is a labeled data point. Every correction is a model improvement signal. The right architecture is full AI coverage today, with humans redirected to two higher-value activities: model retraining on edge cases, and input quality improvement. Better indexed, cleaner inputs reaching the AI means fewer low-confidence cases next month. The 30,000 escalations shrink over time. The $6.5M cost disappears progressively rather than becoming a permanent operating line. Two FinTech examples prove this is not theory — it is a proven trajectory. In my current organisation, for few clients, we use BioCatch — a behavioral biometrics AI — for fraud detection. When deployed in 2025, the system flagged over 30 alert types requiring human review and decision. Full AI coverage at the detection layer, human review at the decision layer. As humans reviewed and decided, the model learned. Today, alert types have reduced by half — the AI now takes decisions autonomously on cases it has learned from, with humans retaining oversight only on genuinely novel patterns. The $6.5M question answers itself: the human review cost reduces as the AI matures. Upstart, the AI-driven lending platform, took full coverage further. During 2024–2025, over 91% of Upstart-powered loans are fully automated with zero human involvement — including non-standard borrowers with thin credit files, the exact complex edge cases View B would escalate to humans. The AI approves 44% more borrowers than traditional models while driving more inclusive lending, with nearly 29% of loans going to low-to-moderate income communities. The accuracy did not collapse under full coverage — it improved continuously because humans were redeployed to train the model, not review its decisions one by one. The appeals path handles consequential errors adequately. What no appeals path handles is a $6.5M annual cost that becomes structurally permanent, or a 30% customer segment stuck in the slow lane indefinitely — simply for being atypical. Full coverage is not the end state — it is the starting point. Direct the savings toward making the AI worthy of that trust.
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Dinesh Selvarajan started following Decide everything vs. know when to abstain
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Vishwadeep Khatri started following AI News from ET - Meta Oversight Board finds top AI models less likely to criticize repressive regimes , AI News from ET - AI impact, rising costs reshaping Gen Z careers towards multiple income streams: Report , AI News from ET - Chinese banks set for $41 million payday from chipmaker's $8.6 billion IPO and 3 others
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