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Vishwadeep Khatri

India Forecasts

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You are right Amitabh. We should not be using the terms interchangeably. We are forecasting most of the time here (using time series). However, some discussions are about predictions. My questions are about judgements that people may make (prediction). 

 

Thanks for pointing that out. 

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Sir , 

 

The variation in the Actual count of cases is far greater than the Forecast. If I consider the data for May 4th the standard deviation for actual is 1255 where as that of forecast is 681.

 

If we consider the variation of 1472 & we add it with 14615(actual cases for Week ending 3rd may'2020) the total actual cases should be at 16,086. This is well below the forecast of 10th May'2020 (18,588).

 

Weekend  Variance in Forcast Forecast Actual Variance in Actual
22nd Mar     291.00  
29th Mar   1298.00 736.00 445.00
5th Apr 1803.00 3101.00 3150.00 2414.00
12th Apr 2235.00 5336.00 4922.00 1772.00
19th Apr 2666.00 8002.00 9093.00 4171.00
26th Apr 3098.00 11100.00 10585.00 1492.00
3rd May 3528.00 14628.00 14615.00 4030.00
10th May   18588.00 16086.97  
Standard deviation 681.95     1471.97

 

 

 

 

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